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<\/a>HELENA \u2014 The results of June 5 primary elections gave some clues as to the mood of Montana\u2019s electorate, and all signs points to another competitive \u2014 and expensive \u2014 U.S. Senate race this fall.<\/p>\n<\/a>HELENA \u2014 The results of June 5 primary elections gave some clues as to the mood of Montana\u2019s electorate, and all signs points to another competitive \u2014 and expensive \u2014 U.S. Senate race this fall.<\/p>\n
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State Auditor\u00a0Matt Rosendale<\/a><\/u>, who ran much of his primary campaign as though he was the frontrunner, confirmed that position last week by easily defeating former Billings Judge Russ Fagg, Big Sky businessman Troy Downing and Kalispell surgeon Al Olszewski in the four-way Republican U.S. Senate primary.<\/p>\n Rosendale, who has already benefited from nearly\u00a0$2 million in outside spending<\/a><\/u>, will now face two-term incumbent\u00a0Democratic Sen. Jon Tester<\/a><\/u>\u00a0on\u00a0Nov. 6.<\/p>\n Rosendale said now that he\u2019s the Republican Party\u2019s official choice to take on Tester, the only thing that changes about his campaign in the level of support it has.<\/p>\n \u201cSix months ago, my campaign was against Jon Tester because I recognized we had the campaign and the candidate that was the most viable one to take Jon Tester on,\u201d Rosendale said. \u201cNow the people of Montana have made that decision.<\/p>\n Tester, a former state senator and farmer from Big Sandy, narrowly won his first two elections to the U.S. Senate in\u00a02006<\/a><\/u>\u00a0and\u00a02012<\/a><\/u>\u00a0in what were some of the most expensive campaigns in Montana history. Political observers expect Tester to face another stiff challenge in Rosendale in a state where President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by\u00a0more than 20 points<\/a><\/u>\u00a0in 2016. Trump currently enjoys at\u00a056 percent approval rating<\/a><\/u>\u00a0in Montana. Libertarian Rick Breckenridge<\/a>, of Dayton, and Green Party candidate\u00a0Steve Kelly<\/a>, of Bozeman, are also running.<\/p>\n Tester said Montana\u2019s Senate race will not be a referendum on Trump, but rather a clear choice about who Montanans want to represent them.<\/p>\n \u201cDo they want a millionaire real estate developer from Maryland to represent them, or they can have a third-generation Montana farmer,\u201d Tester said in an interview\u00a0Friday. \u201cI think it\u2019s going to about be who Montanans want to represent them and carry their values to Washington, D.C. If I was Matt Rosendale, I\u2019d want to make it about somebody else, too.\u201d<\/p>\n Jeremy Johnson<\/a><\/u>, an associate professor of political science at Carroll College, said turnout for the June 5 primary election should be an encouraging sign for Tester and Democrats. Johnson points to the fact that voter turnout in a mid-term election year primary is typically around 35 percent, but this year\u2019s turnout was north of 41 percent, the highest midterm primary turnout rate in nearly a quarter century.<\/p>\n Matt Rosendale<\/p><\/div>\n In addition, the percentage of primary voters who voted on the Democratic primary ballot in the top races increased by 7 percent from the 2014 mid-term primary.<\/p>\n \u201cI think there\u2019s clear Democratic Party enthusiasm,\u201d Johnson said. \u201cPrimary election turnout is not that predictive of turnout for a general election, but if the election of Trump has generated increased Democratic enthusiasm, I\u2019d expect that will be the same in the general election.\u201d<\/p>\n Montana\u2019s Senate race will once again be closely watched throughout the country, and outside groups are expected to spend millions of dollars in the state in the coming months.<\/p>\n Indeed, they already have.<\/p>\n Six third-party groups have already spent $1.8 million to support Rosendale, and another\u00a0$383,000 opposing Tester<\/a><\/u>.<\/p>\n For his part, Tester has benefitted from $430,000 in outside spending to support his re-election bid, and more is on the way.<\/p>\n On Monday, a group called the\u00a0Senate Majority PAC<\/a><\/u>\u00a0announced that it reserved TV airtime in nine states that have competitive Senate races, including Montana. The group\u2019s funders include hedge fund manager and philanthropist\u00a0Donald Sussman<\/a><\/u>, \u201cFamily Guy\u201d creator\u00a0Seth MacFarlane<\/a><\/u>, and billionaire investor and political activist\u00a0George Soros<\/a><\/u>.<\/p>\n Senate Majority PAC spokesman\u00a0Chris Hayden said the group plans to spend \u201cseven figures\u201d in Montana, though he declined to give a specific amount.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is obviously a key race this year and Republican outside groups have been spending for a while there focused on Matt Rosendale,\u201d Hayden said\u00a0Monday. \u201cThe reason the outside groups have been spending against [Tester] is because he represents Montanans and not them.\u201d<\/p>\n Jon Tester<\/p><\/div>\n Tester, who as of May enjoyed a\u00a052 percent approval rating<\/a><\/u>\u00a0among likely Montana voters, found himself in Trump\u2019s crosshairs in April after Tester \u2014 the ranking Democrat on the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs \u2014\u00a0made public<\/a><\/u>\u00a0allegations against Ronny Jackson, Trump\u2019s pick to head the Veterans Administration.<\/p>\n Jackson removed himself for consideration for the post after the allegations \u2014 which included claims that the official White House doctor engaged in inappropriate behavior that included handing out prescription drugs \u2014 surfaced.<\/p>\n Trump then took to Twitter and\u00a0called on Tester to resign<\/a><\/u>\u00a0from the Senate. Political observers\u00a0expect<\/a><\/u>\u00a0Trump to campaign in Montana against Tester.<\/p>\n And if Trump wasn\u2019t enough of a wild-card in this year\u2019s Senate race, there\u2019s another twist: The Green Party will be on the ballot.<\/p>\n If Kelly is allowed to stay on the ballot as the Green Party candidate (the Montana Democratic Party\u00a0filed a lawsuit<\/a><\/u>\u00a0asking a judge to decertify the Green Party because of irregularities involving petition signatures) some Democrats fear Kelly could draw votes from liberals who might otherwise vote for Tester.Green Party candidate Steve Kelly\u00a0unsuccessfully ran for U.S. House in 1994<\/a><\/u>\u00a0as an independent, and he was the Democratic nominee for the U.S. House in 2002, where he\u00a0lost to Republican Denny Rehberg by 32 points.<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n Conventional wisdom among Montana Republicans is that Libertarian candidates have \u2014 with the help of groups tied to Democrats \u2014 played\u00a0spoiler<\/a><\/u>\u00a0roles in Tester\u2019s previous two elections by drawing enough votes from the Republicans in those races to put Tester over the top.<\/p>\n In 2012, a third-party group sympathetic to Tester\u00a0spent $500,000 in the final days of the election<\/a><\/u>\u00a0on a TV ad buy supporting the Libertarian in the race, Dan Cox.<\/p>\n This time around Democrats have accused a Nevada-based company of conducting paid signature-gathering operations in Montana on behalf of the Green Party without reporting those activities to state regulators, as required by law.<\/p>\n Could groups sympathetic to Republicans be taking a page out of their political opponents\u2019 playbook and back the Green Party candidate?<\/p>\n Time will tell.<\/p>\n In the meantime, Kelly rejects the notion that he or the Green Party could play a \u201cspoiler\u201d role come November. Elections are about choices, Kelly said, and he is giving voters another choice.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re the moral alternative to the two-party corruption that\u2019s getting worse all the time,\u201d Kelly said in an interview\u00a0Saturday.<\/p>\n Kelly said the attempt by Democrats to remove Green Party candidates from the ballot is \u201cblatant voter suppression.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTester has never won with the majority of the vote in Montana. He\u2019s had two tough elections in 2006 and 2012, yet most people think Tester is a favorite, and that seems to include some Republicans,\u201d Kondik said.Trump, outside spending, the power of the incumbency, and third-party candidates are among the reasons\u00a0Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball\u00a0<\/em><\/a>managing editor\u00a0Kyle Kondik<\/a><\/u>\u00a0called Montana\u2019s U.S. Senate race one of the most \u201cmysterious\u201d races in the country.<\/p>\n Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball\u00a0<\/em>currently lists Montana\u2019s Senate race as \u201cleans Democrat<\/a><\/u>.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s partly because history shows voters traditionally are not kind to Senate candidates who share the same political party affiliation as the sitting president.<\/p>\n Kondik points to the fact that between 1914 and 2014, Senate incumbents who did not belong to the president\u2019s party were reelected\u00a091 percent of the time<\/a><\/u>.<\/p>\n![\"CapreAir_Variable\"](\"http:\/\/lastbestnews.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/201703_capeair_variable.jpg\")
<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n![\"Matt](\"http:\/\/lastbestnews.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/Matt-Rosendale-mug.png\")
<\/a>![\"Jon](\"http:\/\/lastbestnews.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/John-Tester-mug.png\")
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