The Griz are on the road again, this time to visit Autzen Stadium as they’re playing the Oregon Ducks in the 2nd highest FCS vs FBS payout of the year. Obviously this is a heavy mis-match, Oregon is a team with either national title or at least major bowl game aspirations and come in with a superior roster in most all facets. The common phrase we’ll hear from fans this week is, “I just hope no one gets hurt” in this game. For me, I’m hoping for those moments and events that show some success for Montana. They had a few the last time they played Oregon, had one against Washington a few years ago, and that’s what I’ll be looking for (in addition to hopefully no major losses).

21-27 loss vs Auburn: In the marquee week 1 game, played in Dallas, the Ducks jumped out early, up 14-3 and 21-6 and were looking like they’d be on their way to a huge week 1 win. However from there Auburn scored the last 21 points in the game, including the go-ahead TD with just 9 seconds left in the game. Auburn had over 200 on the ground and held Oregon to less than 100 yards rushing in the game.

77-6 win vs Nevada: Oregon bounced back in a major way. What’s funny is that Nevada was up 3-0, and the game was close at 7-6… but then… alllll Oregon. Oregon rushed for 221, passed for 402 and they held Nevada to just 149 total yards of offense. Oregon forced 4 turnovers
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Passing yards per game Montana (322 for ORE vs 361 for UM)
Rushing yards per game Montana (155 for ORE vs 158 for UM)
Total offense Montana (477 for ORE vs 520 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game Oregon (143 for ORE vs 295 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (144 for ORE vs 81 for UM)
Total defense Oregon (287 for ORE vs 387 for UM)4 for Montana, 2 for Oregon

Offense points scored Oregon (49 for ORE vs 46 for UM)
Defense points allowed Oregon (16 for ORE vs 17 for UM)
Turnover margin Oregon – (+4 for ORE / +2 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % Montana (0% for ORE vs 75% for UM)
Punt Returns Oregon (27 yards for ORE vs 26 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Push (25 yards for ORE vs 25 yards for UM)
T.O.P. Montana (29:26 for ORE vs 33:58 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Push (33% ORE / 33% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Oregon (81% ORE / 60% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (35% for ORE / 57% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (30% allowed for ORE vs 22% allowed for UM)

Montana has 4, Oregon has 5, push has 2. Totals come to Montana 8, Oregon 7, Push 2
Anyone thinking these stats are apples to apples is sorely mistaken though.

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#10 Justin Herbert, QB – Herbert’s viewed as one of the best college QBs playing this season. He’s got 6 passing TDs already this season and is averaging 276 yards passing per game.#7 CJ Verdell, RB – A 5-9, 210 pound back, Verdell leads the team in rushing so far this season, he’s got 136 yards and 2 TDs on the ground this season.

#3 Johnny Johnson III, WR – a 6 foot tall, 199 pound WR, he’s tied for the most receptions on the team so far with 12 and has a team high 147 receiving yards.

#27 Jacob Breeland, TE – the 6-5, 250 pound TE has the 2nd most receiving yards on the team with 138 and has 1 TD so far this year.

#8 Jevon Holland, S – Not only is he a stud safety, 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT so far, but he’s also a beast punt returner, averaging about 35 yards per return.

#35 Troy Dye, ILB – Leading the team with 19 tackles in 2 games, he’s got 2 TFLs as well.
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1. No big/chunk plays by Oregon. They’re a fast paced offense and most likely more athletic and talented than the Washington team the Griz saw in 2017. Can’t let Oregon have a single one of those.

2. Win the turnover battle in a major way. If you’re going to shock the world, you need to make a ton of major plays. Griz would need to be +4 or better I’d imagine.

3. Don’t let Oregon’s skill on ST burn you. Kick/punt everything out of bounds.

4. Hit Herbert and don’t let him get in a rhythm. Auburn did that in the 2nd half of their game pretty well. Griz D-line has to play out of their minds good and get after Herbert on their own and force him to make errors.

5. Hold the ball for an incredibly long time. Oregon doesn’t need TOP to win games, but keeping the ball out of their skill players hands would really help
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I debated about changing the title of keys to a victory, but kept it. I’m clearly not expecting one, Oregon is too damn good and this is as mis-matched of a play-up game as we’ve seen in quite some time. As stated in the start of this, what I’m looking for is some moments, some plays, some drives… where the Griz flash some skill and ability to make some plays.

Obviously I’m picking Oregon, unsure on score as we’ll probably see a lot of their backups as the game keeps on. I’m expecting a pretty lop sided score maybe on par with their score against Nevada last week.

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