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Published on March 13th, 2019 | by Brian Marceau

We have a lot to say about the Big Sky Conference tournament

The regular season is done and Big Sky Conference tournament play starts today in *checks notes* Boise, Idaho at *checks notes again* 9:30am MDT.  In our mega end-of-the-season recap, we give out our player awards and also breakdown the likelihood of the Bobcats and the Grizzlies meeting in the conference championship.

All-Conference Awards

Excluded Due To Injury

Jamar Akoh, Montana, Sr. (would have been first team)
Jacob Davison, EWU, So. (would have been second team) 

The biggest difference between our teams is which Montana State guard deserved First Team honors. We have no problem with selecting Tyler Hall, but to us, Harald Frey has stronger statistical and eye-test cases than his teammate. Hall’s main contribution to the Bobcats was as a scorer, and in that category he led Frey in conference by a margin of 21.2ppg to 19.7ppg. Aside from the narrow points per game margin, Frey is Hall’s equal in rebounds, field goal percentage, and turnovers per game, while contributing more assists (5.2 apg to 2.6apg), shooting more free throws (5.7fta to 2.7fta), and hitting a better percentage from three (41.7% to 37.1%). From the eye-test perspective, watching Montana State throughout the season it was clear that Frey was the Bobcats’ most important offensive player. His drives created open shots for teammates, the fouls he drew created easy points for the Bobcats and problems for opposing defenses, and Frey’s scoring was done with (slightly) greater efficiency than Hall’s. None of that is to say Hall is a poor first team selection—he was our first cut from the first team—it’s more to acknowledge Frey as having one of the best season’s of any player in the conference.

The conference has a differing opinion on Frey vs. Hall, but not an indefensible position, which is why you see Frey on their second team. Otherwise, we included Michael Oguine as our second selection to our second team due to his contributions on both ends of the floor. His raw numbers do not jump off the page the way Marcus Graves’ or Holland Woods’ numbers do, but Oguine was a top-three defender in conference, which we don’t have a great way to quantify, and Oguine’s offensive numbers (12.5ppg on 8.2fga, 5.3rpg, 49 fg%) came more efficiently than just about any player in the conference. In a lot of ways, the production of Jamar Akoh, then eventually Sayeed Pridgett came at the expense of Oguine receiving regular looks, but Oguine still put up numbers worthy of Second Team recognition. Finally, the Big Sky selected both EWU posts to their second team, while we went with Weber State’s Brekkot Chapman. This is a matter of what contributions are valued: Peatling and Hunt were close to making our Second Team, but Brekkot Chapman’s defensive presence outweighed the narrow offensive edge of both EWU posts.

With our case already made for both EWU posts, the discrepancy here includes EWU’s Jacob Davison, who we excluded due to missed games, and our team valuing Cody John’s contribution to fourth seeded Weber State more than Joshua Patton’s to ninth seeded Sacramento State. This is more of an eye-of-the-beholder issue. Patton and John each had solid overall seasons, while both also had stretches of inconsistent production. We don’t have an objective case for John over Patton, other than to say we felt he was the better player on the better team.

Individual Awards

Both the Big Sky and Montana Mint agreed with Jordan Davis’ statistically overwhelming season on the second best team in the conference merited MVP recognition, while we also agreed Bernie Andre’s near double-double average for NAU was the most impressive contribution from a newcomer (Oluyitan was our second pick for the award, the difference between Montana Mint and the Big Sky here being measured in degree). Our pick of Cameron Tyson over Bodie Hume for Freshman of the Year came down to what contributions we valued. Hume had a great season, but Tyson’s production was a bit more steady in an environment where few of his looks were created for him. Was Tyson the beneficiary of increased opportunities due to Idaho’s awful season? No question, and if the conference valued contributing to a winning team more than raw numbers, we understand the selection of Hume. Tyson just looked like an incredible asset, and we’re curious what his points per game numbers would’ve looked like if he played with a point guard towards the top of the league in assists.

Defensive Player of the Year was another subjective matter. Jonah Radebaugh was the best defensive player on the league’s best defense (in terms of points allowed), Bobby Moorehead was the best defensive player on the league’s second best defense. Both Moorehead and Radebaugh were almost always assigned the opposing team’s best scorer, and Radebaugh was our second choice. Again, this came down to a subjective assessment. Moorehead’s ability to guard wings and forwards gave him a narrow edge in our eyes.

The Top Reserve Award came down to impact for us—Kendal Manuel played well for Montana, but Deante Strickland was the second leading scorer in conference for the Vikings, and a big part of why Portland State turned their season around at around the halfway point, including his run of scoring between 19 and 20 in all three of the Vikings’ final games.

A Cat/Griz final?

While the odds to not favor the two Montana schools meeting for the championship, the bracket is setup to allow it and the teams are, in theory, good enough to make it happen.  We discuss below what each team needs to do to make it happen.

The Bobcats’ Bracket

Montana State closed the season with a whimper while losing four of their last six games, including a conference season ending loss at Portland State that bumped the Bobcats from a top-five finish and the accompanying first round bye. All things considered, dropping that game and finding themselves in the bottom half of the bracket might’ve been a stroke of luck for Montana State.

Here’s how the Bobcats handled the top-half of the bracket:

vs.Montana: 0-2
vs. Weber St: 0-2
vs. Portland St.: 1-1
vs. Sacramento St.: 1-1
vs. Northern Arizona: 1-1

And here’s the Bobcats’ record against their side of the bracket:

vs. Idaho: 2-0
vs. Southern Utah: 2-0
vs. Idaho St.: 2-0
vs. Northern Colorado: 1-1
vs. Eastern Washington: 1-1

The records tell their own story—3-7 vs. the top half, 8-2 vs. their own half—but the further you dive into the actual games, the better Montana State’s situation outside the top-five looks. Going round-by-round, we’ll start with the Bobcats’ profile against Idaho:

vs. Idaho
Record: 2-0
Results: at Idaho (77-67), vs. Idaho (86-72)
Average Scoring Margin: +12

It’s no secret Idaho is as close to a bye as exists for the bottom-six teams in the conference, and Montana State handled the Vandals both regular season meetings. If Bobcat fans are nervous about a first round upset, keep in mind this Idaho team: owns the worst conference scoring margin in the 21st century (-14.2), is down to eight available players including one total post who averaged 3.9 fouls per game in conference, did not win a single Division 1 game without shooting over 50 percent from three, and somehow managed a sub-.500 record in games when the team did shoot over 50 percent from three (3-4). In short, even when things go well for the Vandals, they’re more likely than not to find a way to lose. For Montana State  to become the third Idaho victim in twenty-one tries, we’ll have to see Idaho play one of their best offensive games of the season while the Bobcats deliver awful showings on both ends of the court. Any combination of performances beyond Idaho’s best and Montana State’s worst is a Bobcat win, and an opening round win might be the confidence booster this team needs to shake any lingering uneasiness from Montana State’s 2-4 finish.

Eastern Washington awaits in the second round, and again, of the top-five teams for Montana State to see, this is the team the Bobcats should want. On paper, Montana State’s performances against EWU were both close affairs:

vs. EWU
Record: 1-1
Results: at EWU (81-85), vs EWU (74-66)
Average Scoring Margin: +2

Just like with the Vandals, the EWU roster will be shorthanded in Boise, but in a more significant way. Leading scorer Jacob Davison (18.5ppg in conference) has not played since February 16th, and though the Eagles have gone 5-2 without Davison, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles matching up better with the Bobcats once we remove EWU’s most dynamic offensive threat. Freshman Kim Aikan Jr. has filled in admirably for Davison, averaging 11.7ppg while starting the final seven games for EWU, but his performance was uneven (scoring highs of 20 and 19, scoring lows of 4 and 2), and an off night for Aikan could swing the Bobcats’ backcourt advantage close to insurmountable, where the combination of Harald Frey and Tyler Hall average twice as many points per game as the Eagles’ backcourt duo of Aiken and Tyler Kidd (40.9ppg to 20.1ppg, or 23.7ppg if we use Aikan’s numbers since the Davison injury).

For the Eagles to beat Montana State, they will have to ride the frontcourt performance of Mason Peatling and Jesse Hunt. Peatling and Hunt combine for 29.1ppg and 16.7rpg in conference, and at times looked like the best combination of true posts in the league, but in their two games against the Bobcats, the duo had night-and-day outings. In Montana State’s early season loss in Cheney, Peatling and Hunt combined for 28 points, 16 rebounds, while shooting over 50 percent from the field, while in the Bobcats’ win in Bozeman the two combined for 15 points, 17 rebounds, and shot just over 40 percent from the field. Any level of inconsistency out of Peatling and Hunt, particularly considering the expected absence of Jacob Davison and the 23.5ppg he averaged against Montana State, will likely yield a Bobcat win.  

If Montana State handles EWU, their likely opponent will be Northern Colorado. For the sake of giving Southern Utah and Idaho State their due, the Bobcats went 4-0 against both teams, including a 30 point season opening win at SUU and a 20 point win over ISU in Bozeman. Both games were closer the second time around, though it’s safe to say Bobcat fans should be ecstatic if either the Thunderbirds or Bengals upset UNC.

In two outings against Northern Colorado, the Bears and the Bobcats came up dead even:

vs. UNC
Record: 1-1
Results: vs. UNC (70-73), at UNC (69-66)
Average Scoring Margin: even

It’s worth noting both games had final scores more indicative of Northern Colorado dictating the game’s pace, but of the five seeded teams, UNC is uniquely ill fit to exploit Montana State’s defense. Outside of Jordan Davis, the Bears do not field a single reliable scorer, and in both games against the Bobcats, Davis averaged six fewer points per game than he did during the rest of the conference schedule (17.5ppg to 23.6ppg). The downside for Montana State is UNC’s calling card has been their defense, which was particularly effective against Harald Frey. The Bears cut Frey’s conference points per game marks in half (from 19.7ppg to 9ppg), while also forcing Frey into two sub-40 percent shooting nights. More troubling for the Bobcats is the recent dip in production from their third leading scorer, senior Keljin Blevins. Blevins averaged 11.7ppg during the conference season, but averaged only 8.3ppg during their final six games while shooting 33 percent from the field or worse in five of those outings. To beat UNC, and likely to make it to a potential semifinal matchup at all, the Bobcats will need either superhuman performances night in and night out from Hall and Frey, or someone else must produce. For much of the Big Sky season, that third scorer was Blevins.

The Grizzlies’ Bracket

After winning the regular season title, Montana will face the winner of a 9:30am MDT game between Sacramento State and Northern Arizona. Montana swept both the Hornets and the Lumberjacks, but when looking at the profile the Grizzlies generated against the two teams, there’s a clear favorite for Montana fans to root for:

vs. Sacramento St
Record: 2-0
Results: vs. Sac St (87-56), at Sac St (86-68)
Average Scoring Margin: +24.5

vs. NAU
Record: 2-0
Results: at NAU (86-73), vs. NAU (66-64)
Average Scoring Margin: +7.5

Montana will be the unquestioned favorite no matter who wins, but the Lumberjacks stayed competitive in both games against the Grizzlies, while Sacramento State did not belong in the same gym. Based on the Hornets and Lumberjacks splitting their season series, this opening round game is essentially a tossup, but we’ll call NAU our narrow favorites.

Against the Grizzlies, the Lumberjacks will need Montana to come out flat for this to be competitive. In their most recent matchup against NAU in Missoula, Montana did just that, scoring just 29 first half points while building an eight point deficit, though there are reasons to believe that showing was an outlier it will be hard for the Grizzlies to repeat. Montana is unlikely to commit nine first half turnovers again, and nominal contribution from First Team All-Big Sky guard Ahmaad Rorie (zero points, 0-7fga) would have pushed the outcome closer to the double-figure margin we expect Montana to finish their Thursday game with.

It’s worth noting that forward Jamar Akoh appears to be out for the tournament, meaning we will see the wide-open version of Montana’s offense in Boise. The biggest beneficiary of Akoh’s absence has been junior Sayeed Pridgett. Over the final eleven conference games, Pridgett averaged 20.7ppg while shooting below 60 percent just once over the same span. Production like that will likely put Pridgett in next season’s preseason conversation for player of the year along with Frey and Weber State’s Jerrick Harding.

For Montana’s Friday game, again, we have a clear favorite for Grizzlies’ fans to root for. Here are the season profiles for Montana against the fourth seeded Weber State and fifth seeded Portland State:

vs. Weber St.
Record: 2-0
Results: vs. Weber St (75-68), at Weber St (83-80)
Average Scoring Margin: +5

vs. Portland St.
Record: 0-2
Results: vs. PSU (74-77 OT), at PSU (69-81)
Average Scoring Margin: -7.5

Further pushing Griz fans to cheer for Weber State are the divergent paths both the Wildcats and Vikings rode to 11-9 conference records. After opening the conference season 7-1, Weber State went 4-8 over their final twelve games, including two losses to Montana where the Grizzlies built (and almost lost) twenty point leads in each game. Portland State’s season was the inverse: after starting 4-8, the Vikings closed the year winning seven of their final eight games, a run capped off with sweeping both Montana and Montana State while handing the Grizzlies their only double-digit loss of the conference season.

Further inspection into the Montana and Portland State box scores yields odd patterns. Portland State did not shoot particularly well in either game (below 30 percent from three in each game), did not force Montana turnovers with their press, and did not force a faster pace than an average Grizzlies’ basketball game. The main variables that should trouble Montana fans are how poorly the Grizzlies shot from three (24 percent), Ahmaad Rorie’s struggles with the Viking defense (8.5ppg, 32 percent from the field), and how Portland State’s Holland Woods plays like a league MVP against Montana (averaged 24ppg, 4apg, and shot 54 percent in both games). If Woods can go back to the hot-and-cold player he was throughout the entire Big Sky season, or if Montana can hit from deep closer to their average (39 percent in conference), the Grizzlies should not struggle with Portland State. But we’ve seen this show twice, and the Vikings are on a serious upswing, which is why Montana fans should just hope Weber State takes Portland State out during the Thursday games.

If the Wildcats do beat Portland State, we’ll see the matchup most fans thought we’d see between the Big Sky’s blue bloods, just one round early. In the regular season, Montana outclassed Weber State in both first halves, while the Wildcats’ second half comebacks each fell short. Based on consistency, and how poorly Weber State closed the year, we give Montana a significant edge in Boise. It should be noted that Zach Braxton, who missed the last game vs. Montana, will be playing in the conference tournament.

If Montana advances to the final, they will likely play Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, or Montana State. Here’s the profile for Montana against all three teams:

vs Eastern Washington
Record: 1-1
Results: at EWU (71-78), vs. EWU (75-74)
Average Scoring Margin: -3

vs. Northern Colorado
Record: 1-1
Results: at UNC (64-88), vs UNC (72-74)
Average Scoring Margin: +11

vs. Montana State
Record: 2-0
Results: at MSU (83-78), vs. MSU (89-83)
Average Scoring Margin: +5.5

The overall record for Montana against the combination of EWU, UNC, and Montana State is 4-2, with the blowout win in Greeley over UNC creating that enormous scoring margin not present against with EWU or Montana State. Of those three teams, EWU looks like the worst matchup, but the Eagles will be playing with Davison and the 17ppg he averaged against the Grizzlies. Northern Colorado has the most recent win of the three against Montana, though Grizzlies fan likely feel Montana threw that game away with a parade of missed free throws in the final few minutes that should have closed the door on UNC. Out of EWU and UNC, the Bears are in some ways a better draw for Montana, based on the lack of supporting scorers UNC fields around Jordan Davis, and the fact that Montana is the only team in the Big Sky with two elite defenders it can rotate onto Davis (Moorehead and Oguine). The appeal of EWU would have to be how difficult it could be for the Eagles to manufacture points against the Grizzlies without the creativity of Jacob Davison, though the Eagles have a way of bringing their best against Montana that makes it hard to envision EWU as an ideal matchup.

The most fun potential final matchup is round three of Cat-Griz. Montana won both games by single-digit margins, and both games were played at a pace favorable to Montana State. An advantage for the Bobcats would be the level of play both Tyler Hall and Harald Frey exhibited against their rivals (combined average of 44ppg and 9apg), though Montana fans will counter this argument with 17.5ppg Ahmaad Rorie averaged in those same games, coupled with stable production from Pridgett, Michael Oguine, and sixth man Kendal Manuel’s (13ppg off the bench vs Montana State) deliver against the porous Bobcat defense. Overall, we feel the most likely champions are the Grizzlies, but feel picking Northern Colorado or Montana State as dark horses is not indefensible.

Ranking of Likely Champions:
1. Montana
2. Northern Colorado
3. Montana State
4. Portland State
5. Eastern Washington
6. Weber State
7. The conference closes shop
8. The rest of the

Cover Photo via GoGriz.com

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Tags: #montana, basketball, Big Sky Conference, Eastern Washington, Idaho, idaho state, montana state, Northern Arizona, northern colorado, portland state, Sacramento State, Southern Utah, weber state

About the Author

Brian Marceau Brian Marceau writes fiction, teaches, and covers University of Idaho men's basketball for Tubs At The Club, all while voluntarily enduring Idaho Vandal football games. He is a retired connoisseur of $4-and-under wines, an unrepentant coffee snob, and a follower of Big Sky football and basketball.

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