Big Sky Deep Dive: Grizzlies Separate, Bobcats Rise
In our penultimate Big Sky Deep Dive, Brian Marceau sizes up all eleven schools’ shot at a top-five finish and the accompanying first round Big Sky tournament bye.
The Chasing History Tier
Idaho
Record: 4-21
Conference: 1-13
Last Week: at Montana (59-100), at MSU (72-86), vs. UNC (47-75), at EWU (57-82)
Upcoming: at NAU (2/21), at SUU (2/23), vs. PSU (2/28), vs. Sac St. (3/2), at Weber St. (3/7), at ISU (3/9)
Key Players (Conference only stats):
Trevon Allen, Guard, Jr.
13.9ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.7apg, 44.3 fg%
Cameron Tyson, Guard, Fr.
13.2ppg, 40.2 3fg%, 7.3 3fga
Jared Rodriguez, Forward, Fr.
10.2ppg, 6.4rpg, 46.9 fg%, 40.7 3fg%
Idaho’s streak of double-digit losses extended to nine while losing all four of the team’s most recent games in blowout fashion. Considering Idaho’s incredible youth (no seniors, one active junior total), competing for the league championship was not likely in the cards from day one, but it should concern Vandal fans that there appears to be no promising angle to view this season from, unless fielding the Big Sky’s worst scoring offense, worst scoring defense, worst rebounding margin, worst turnover margin, worst shooting percentage, fewest assists, and the worst scoring margin the conference has seen dating back to 2000-2001 (the cutoff for Bigskyconf.com’s archived stats) yields some version of theoretical optimism inaccessible to this truly confused author.
With the Vandals no longer in the market for real wins, their best chances at a fourth league game with a single digit margin (Idaho is 1-2 in those games, none of which have taken place since January 5th) come in the form of road games at NAU and Idaho State, and their final home game of the season against Sacramento State. Each of those teams is in the bottom half of the Big Sky in scoring offense, and with Idaho not having a single Big Sky game with a defensive rating below 100, and only two with a defensive rating below 105, the Vandals will need a poor offensive night from the opposition to remain close, though this still may not be enough to overcome Idaho’s offensive woes, where the Vandals have only five league games with an offensive rating above 100.
The Anything’s On The Table Tier
Idaho State
Record: 9-15
Conference: 5-10
Last Week: at NAU (81-79), at SUU (72-78), vs. MSU (76-84), vs. Montana (68-80)
Upcoming: at PSU (2/21), at UNC (3/2), vs. Weber St. (3/4), vs. EWU (3/7), vs. Idaho (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Balint Mocsan, Guard, Jr.
13.2ppg, 47.6 fg%, 43.9 3fg%, 9.5fga
Brandon Boyd, Guard, Jr.
14.1ppg, 39.7 fg%, 23.2 3fg%, 3.7apg
Kelvin Jones, Center, Jr.
8.7ppg, 6.3rpg, 1.5blk, 52.2 fg%
Idaho State has been a slightly better version of their northern neighbors in Moscow, following a similar trend of purging points on the defensive end (no games with a defensive rating below 100 since January 3rd), while playing bad-to-okay offense. The Bengals’ formula has yielded a 2-8 mark over their last ten games, including an active three game losing streak, after starting Big Sky season at a promising 3-2. Equally concerning to the win-loss mark is the fashion which ISU has arrived at their 5-10 league mark. The Bengals have the Big Sky’s second worst scoring margin (-6.2), which is miles ahead of the University of Idaho’s futility, but also a ways from the rest of the conference’s middle tier, where the sixth-to-ninth worst margins range from -1.9 (Sacramento State) to -3.2 (NAU). That puts the Bengals in a tier of their own, where Idaho State is certainly not the league’s worst, but ISU is much closer to that position than the rest of their conference peers with similar records.
The Bengals will have to win out to equal last year’s .500 conference record, and with three of the last five games for Idaho State coming against top five teams (at Northern Colorado, vs. Weber St., vs. EWU), Bengal fans will be in the market for moral victories for next season’s senior-heavy roster to build upon. Junior Brandon Boyd is the Bengals best shot at a future All-Big Sky performer, and though his play can be electric, just like Ethan Telfair before him, the lack of a jump shot is a significant limiting factor to his overall play. Through fifteen conference games, Boyd has had a total of five nights shooting 40 percent or above from the field, including shooting 23.2 percent from three on almost four attempts per game. If Boyd can regain the shooting splits he accrued as a sophomore sixth man (46.8 from the field, 33.8 from three), the spot up shooters surrounding Boyd will have an easier time finding good looks to combat a defense that does not look like it has the ability to be strong.
Northern Arizona
Record: 8-17
Conference: 6-9
Last Week: vs. ISU (79-81), vs. Weber St. (71-86), at PSU (94-103), at Sac St. (78-66)
Upcoming: vs. Idaho (2/21), vs. EWU (2/23), at MSU (3/2), at Montana (3/4), at UNC (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Bernie Andre, Forward, So.
14.1ppg, 8.5rpg, 44.4 fg%
Ted McCree, Guard, Jr.
11.8ppg, 44.9 3fg%, 5.9 3fga
Carlos Hines, Guard, So.
11ppg, 5.2apg, 36.2 fg%, 10.6 fga
The record may not show it, but 2018-19 has represented significant growth for NAU. In spite of having the league’s second youngest roster, the Lumberjacks have increased their points per game by eight (from 65.8 to 73.9), while holding steady on the defensive end. The progress has taken an average NAU game from near blowout margins (-11.7 in 2017-18) to almost entirely close affairs (-3.2 in 2018-19).
What has been consistent at a systemic level for the Lumberjacks this season held true in NAU’s 1-3 run over the past two weeks. With an improved, but inconsistent offense, NAU’s defense is largely what dictates how the team does. In conference play, when NAU has a defensive rating below 103, the Lumberjacks are 6-1. When their defensive rating is above 103, NAU is 0-8, meaning further development for the Lumberjacks will be contingent upon both sophomores Bernie Andre and Carlos Hines becoming twenty point per game scorers, or Coach Jack Murphy’s club will need to field a defense that surrenders points closer to the level of Northern Colorado (66.5ppg allowed) than their current threshold of 77.1ppg.
After hosting Idaho in a likely home win, NAU will close out the regular season against four of the league’s top five teams, with three of those games on the road, giving the Lumberjacks a great chance to faceplant into the Big Sky tournament. EWU may be vulnerable, with leading scorer Jacob Davison likely out with an undisclosed leg injury, but closing out the season at both Montana schools and at Northern Colorado all but guarantees NAU will finish the 2018-19 season with a record resembling the marks of 2017-18 (5-27) or 2016-17 (9-23) that masks the real progress fans in Flagstaff have seen.
Sacramento State
Record: 11-12
Conference: 5-9
Last Week: at UNC (59-65), vs. PSU (78-67), vs. SUU (84-73), vs. NAU (66-78)
Upcoming: vs. Weber St. (2/21), at PSU (2/23), at EWU (2/28), at Idaho (3/2), vs. MSU (3/7), vs. Montana (3/9)
Key Players (Conference only stats):
Marcus Graves, Guard, Sr.
17ppg, 4.9apg, 3.6rpg, 42.3 fg%, 40.4 3fg%
Joshua Patton, Center, Jr.
12.8ppg, 6rpg, 59.3 fg%, 3.4pf
Bryce Fowler, Forward, So.
9.4ppg, 46.8 fg%, 3.6rpg, 2.7apg
Sacramento State has played .500 basketball since starting league play 1-5, and their overall turnaround tracks the improved play of Marcus Graves. The senior point guard started Big Sky play shooting below 40 percent in five of the first six games, and since the Hornets’ picked up league win number two, Graves has hit 40 percent or higher in five of the next eight games, a run where Sacramento State picked up four wins, two single-digit losses, and zero blowouts.
Since this roster is unlikely to see a run much past a first round win in Boise, it will be important for Coach Brian Katz to find contributors who might push Sacramento State towards the program’s second winning season in what will be 29 years of Division 1 basketball. He may have found one building block in Bryce Fowler. The sophomore forward has had a season similar to that of Graves, with his play improving significantly as the season has worn on. After scoring in double-figures twice during Sacramento State’s 1-5 start, Fowler has hit for ten or more points in six of the Hornets following eight games. Having a reliable second scorer with Graves has improved this season, and could be what Hornet fans should track throughout the rest of the year more than the team’s overall record.
Sacramento State’s upcoming games against Weber State and at EWU feel like safe losses, but games at Portland State and at Idaho give the Hornets a chance to remain at .500 since the twice-mentioned 1-5 start. The Hornets’ scoring margin (-1.9) gives them the feel of being one of the best of the worst teams, which is unquestionably a backhanded status, but could amount to a Big Sky tournament win if continued wins give Sacramento State a preferable first round matchup.
Southern Utah
Record: 12-12
Conference: 7-8
Last Week: vs. Weber St. (65-53), vs. ISU (78-72), at Sac St. (73-84), at PSU (69-78)
Upcoming: vs. EWU (2/21), vs. Idaho (2/23), at Montana (3/2), at MSU (3/4), vs. UNC (3/7)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Cameron Oluyitan, Guard, Jr.
12.6ppg, 36.9 3fg%, 4.3 3fga, 4.1rpg
Brandon Better, Guard, Sr.
13.1ppg, 34.6 fg%, 10.4 fga, 29 3fg%, 7.1 3fga
Andre Adams, Forward, So.
11.3ppg, 6.7rpg, 60.5 fg%, 7.6 fga
Southern Utah continued their season of streaks while picking up second and third consecutive wins over Weber State and Idaho State, then dropping back-to-back games at Sacramento State and Portland State. Balanced scoring has been the key for the Thunderbirds, who likely do not have an All-Big Sky player on their roster, but do have four players averaging between 10.5 and 13.1 points per game, with their fifth and six contributors averaging a combined 18.5 per night.
At present, SUU sits 1.5 games behind EWU for fifth place in conference and possession of the final first round conference tournament bye, though the road to fifth for the Thunderbirds will be difficult, with four of their final five games coming against the top tier of the conference. For SUU to move into the top half of the conference, almost all of those games will feel like must wins, including a chance on February 21st to trim a game off of EWU’s lead when the Thunderbirds host the Eagles. For SUU to keep the dream of finishing above .500 alive, they’ll need to ride the continued strong play of Arizona State transfer Andre Adams, who is averaging almost a double-double (13.8ppg, 8rpg) in his last five games.
Portland State
Record: 11-14
Conference: 6-8
Last Week: at UNC (62-80), at Sac St. (67-78), vs. NAU (103-94), vs. SUU (78-69)
Upcoming: vs. ISU (2/21), vs. Sac St. (2/23), at Idaho (2/28), at EWU (3/2), vs. Montana (3/7), vs. MSU (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Holland Woods, Guard, So.
15.4ppg, 5.7apg, 39.8 fg%, 25.4 3fg%
Sal Nuhu, Forward, Jr.
9.5ppg, 6rpg, 49.5 fg%
Robert McCoy, Forward, Jr.
7.9ppg, 5.1rpg, 38.7 fg%, 23.3 3fg%
No Big Sky team’s record has tracked the performance of one player quite the way Portland State’s has tracked the up-and-down play of Holland Woods. The Vikings opened the year at 1-5, with Woods shooting below 40 percent in each loss (and 33 percent or lower in four of the five losses), but since the rough opening stretch, Portland State is 5-3, with Woods shooting better than 40 percent in four of those wins, and 33 percent or lower in two of the three losses. It’s a heavy burden for Woods, the only player on Portland State to score more than ten points per game, but with the Vikings unable to establish a reliable second scorer on their transfer-heavy roster this late into the season, it’s safe to presume Portland State will continue to sail as far as their sophomore point guard can take them.
To finish this season at the same .500 record in conference the Vikings earned in 2017-18, Portland State will need a few things to go right. Three of their final six are clearly winnable when the Vikings host both Idaho State and Sacramento State, then visit Idaho, but a closing stretch at EWU, then hosting Montana and Montana State means Portland State will need steady performances from Woods and production from some combination of juniors Michael Nuga and Sal Nuhu, and seniors Michael Mayhew and Deante Strickland that the Vikings have not seen enough of throughout the 2018-19 season. This makes Portland State more likely to present as seeding spoilers for one of the top three teams, than as a threat to play themselves into a first round bye as the season concludes.
The We’ll Take A Night Off In March Tier
Eastern Washington
Record: 10-15
Conference: 8-6
Last Week: at MSU (66-74), at Montana (74-75), vs. UNC (88-78 OT, vs. Idaho (82-57)
Upcoming: at SUU (2/21), at NAU (2/23), vs. Sac St. (2/28), vs. PSU (3/2), at ISU (3/7), at Weber St. (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Mason Peatling, Forward, Jr.
16.9ppg, 8rpg, 61.3 fg%
Jesse Hunt, Forward, Sr.
13ppg, 8.9rpg, 3.6apg, 46.5 3fg%
Jacob Davison, Guard, So.
18.5ppg, 3.5rpg, 2.2apg, 47.1 fg%
After losing to both Montana schools, EWU rebounded at home with a big overtime win over Northern Colorado and a big win against Idaho. The wins give EWU a 1.5 game lead over SUU for the final bye in the conference tournament, and EWU’s closing schedule is significantly more favorable than SUU’s, though the news is not all good in Cheney. Leading scorer Jacob Davison missed the Idaho game with a leg injury, and it’s unclear what the timetable is for the sophomore’s return, which creates a problem when projecting the last few weeks for EWU.
The Eagles took a few games into conference play to establish their identity after playing the conference’s most difficult nonconference schedule without Mason Peatling, and in the last ten games, the Eagles have thrived behind the complimentary play of guards Davison and Tyler Kidd, and forwards Peatling and Jesse Hunt. Those four average a combined 60.6 points per game, and explain much of EWU’s 7-3 turnaround after starting conference play 1-3. The next four scorers for the Eagles average a combined 16 points per game in conference, meaning if Davison misses extended time, someone will have to step up in a way they have not this season, or the luck will dictate that EWU peaked a few weeks too early.
Fortunately for EWU, all but one of their final six games comes against the bottom half of the conference. If Davison is out, expect EWU to close out their final six games with home wins against Sacramento State and Portland State, but anything goes on three of their final four road games against SUU, NAU, and Idaho State. Whether Davison is playing or not, senior night in Ogden does not bode well for the Eagles, meaning if EWU is going to lock up a bye, it needs to happen before their season ending road trip.
Northern Colorado
Record: 17-9
Conference: 11-4
Last Week: vs. PSU (80-62), vs. Sac St. (65-59), at Idaho (75-47), at EWU (78-88 OT)
Upcoming: at Montana (2/25), vs. Weber St. (2/28), vs. ISU (3/2), at SUU (3/7), vs. NAU (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Jordan Davis, Guard, Sr.
23ppg, 5.1apg, 4.2rpg, 48.8 fg%, 37.7 3fg%
Bodie Hume, Guard, Fr.
10.9ppg, 4.3rpg, 40.7 fg%
Jonah Radebaugh, Guard, Jr.
9.3ppg, 5.3rpg, 36.8 fg%, 27.1 3fg%
In spite of Jordan Davis leading the Big Sky in scoring, defense will dictate how far Northern Colorado’s season will take them. The Bears allow the fewest points per game (66.5) in conference, are 9-1 when surrendering a defensive rating below 100, and 2-3 when their defensive rating rises above 100.
Though the split around defensive rating is clean, further inspection should yield uneasiness to Bear fans. The positive news out of this season, other than the obvious success of their current hold of second place in the Big Sky, is Northern Colorado has only lost to the top of the league, with all four losses coming to teams expecting to join the Bears in sitting out the first round of the Big Sky tournament. The bad news is Northern Colorado’s record against the top of the conference is 2-4, with one of the wins coming early against EWU before the Eagles turned their season around.
Northern Colorado’s chance at an NCAA tournament berth still rests on whether Davis can receive enough help on the offensive end from the group of tough defenders surrounding him. Early in the season, freshman Bodie Hume looked like the second scorer the Bears needed, but after scoring in double-figures in all of UNC’s first seven games, Hume has hit double-figures just once in the last eight, and has seen his minutes cut almost in half over the last four outings. Jonah Radibaugh has stepped up as of late, hitting double-figures in three of the last four games after reaching the mark once in the first eleven games. We will get a preview of whether that run can continue against the top of the league when UNC travels to Montana and hosts Weber State to close out February, but until we see at least middle-of-the-pack offense from the Bears, UNC will be best understood as a team with a high-floor that collects wins against the subpar, but lacks enough to be considered a threat to the top of the conference.
Montana State
Record: 12-13
Conference: 9-6
Last Week: vs. EWU (74-66), vs. Idaho (86-72), at ISU (84-76), at Weber St. (82-94)
Upcoming: at Montana (2/23), vs. NAU (3/2), vs. SUU (3/4), at Sac St. (3/7), at PSU (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Harald Frey, Guard, Jr.
18.3ppg, 5.4apg, 4.7rpg, 42 3fg%
Tyler Hall, Guard, Sr.
20.3ppg, 4.7rpg, 37.5 3fg%, 9.1 3fga
Keljin Blevins, Forward, Sr.
12.2ppg, 6.4rpg, 44.3 fg%
Since ending an early season losing streak with a win in Bozeman over Idaho State, the Bobcats are 5-2 with wins over fellow current-bye-holders EWU and UNC, and the two losses coming at Weber State and against Montana. In short, the Bobcats are peaking at the right time, and with four of their final five games against the bottom half of the Big Sky, Montana State is in great position to give Coach Brian Fish the best conference season of his short head coaching career.
What may be most surprising about the mid-to-late season push by the Bobcats is how they’ve gone about contending for a top three finish. In wins at Northern Colorado and at home against EWU, the Bobcats played two of their three best defensive games of the conference season (defensive ratings of 91.7 and 86.8, respectively), while balanced scoring paved the way to wins over Idaho (five players scored 13 or more) and Idaho State (four players scored 17 or more).
Heading into the final weeks of the season, Montana State sits in fourth place, and will have a chance at accruing a third win against top-five conference teams when the Bobcats travel to Missoula. After what will be a tough game against the Griz, Montana State will see NAU, SUU, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all teams without a real chance at earning a bye, and all teams (except NAU) Montana State has already disposed of this season. The Bobcats league leading offense (82.1ppg, only three conference games with an offensive rating below 107) will likely be too much for their final four opponents, though it will be interesting to observe the continued evolution of senior Tyler Hall’s role in the offense. Hall has always been able to score, but its his passing that has stood out as of late. The senior guard accrued a total of four assists twice in the Bobcats’ first eleven conference games, but has averaged four assists in Montana State’s most recent four games. If those numbers hold, it gives the Bobcats two starting guards who contribute both via scoring and playmaking (Harald Frey averages 18.1ppg and 5.4apg in conference), which will make Montana State a much tougher out in the conference tournament.
Weber State
Record: 16-10
Conference: 10-5
Last Week: at SUU (53-65), at NAU (86-71), vs. Montana (80-83), vs. MSU (94-82)
Upcoming: at Sac St. (2/21), at UNC (2/28), at ISU (3/4), vs. Idaho (3/7), vs. EWU (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Jerrick Harding, Guard, Jr.
22.9pg, 48.5 fg%, 34.4 3fg%, 3.3rpg
Brekkott Chapman, Forward, Sr.
13.6ppg, 10.3rpg, 1.7blk, 42.7 3fg%
Cody John, Guard, Jr.
13.8ppg, 2.3apg, 3.9rpg, 48.4 fg%
Weber State continued what Wildcat fans must consider a run of frustrating play while losing in impressive fashion (again) to Southern Utah, handling NAU, developing a second twenty-point deficit to Montana then coming up just short in the second half, and finally handling fourth place Montana State. The Wildcats field at worst the second most talented roster in the Big Sky, and while their record against the top of the conference is strong (4-2 vs. Montana, UNC, Montana State, and EWU), three losses to the bottom half of the conference have likely pushed a regular season Big Sky championship out of the question.
With the rest of the Wildcats’ season devoted to conference tournament seeding, the biggest news for Weber State is the health of Zach Braxton. The senior forward has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and though the Wildcats did pickup a win against Montana State without him, it’s hard to envision this team beating a healthy Montana in the conference tournament with Braxton in street clothes. Braxton has averaged just under 11 points per game on less than six field goal attempts in conference play, giving the Wildcats the most low maintenance fourth scorer in the conference. When teamed with Brekkot Chapman, Weber State can reliably expect to outmatch any frontcourt in the conference outside of Missoula, but that math changes when underclassmen Michal Kozak and Dima Zdor man the five in place of Braxton.
Weber closes out the season with games we can pencil in as wins at Sacramento State, at ISU, and at home against Idaho, with games against likely top-five UNC and EWU sandwiched in between. Expect the Wildcats to pick up no less than three wins, but to maintain their run of success against the top of the conference sans Montana, they will need Cody John to maintain the All-Big Sky form he showed early in the season that reemerged over the Wildcats’ last three games while the junior guard averaged just under 20 points per contest. With John as a third scorer behind Chapman and Jerrick Harding, Weber State can outrun any team in the conference, and at least contend with Montana for a spot in the NCAA tournament.
The It’s Lonely Up Here Tier
Montana
Record: 19-6
Conference: 12-2
Last Week: vs. Idaho (100-59), vs. EWU (75-74), at Weber St. (83-80), at ISU (80-68)
Upcoming: vs. MSU (2/23), vs. UNC (2/25), vs. SUU (3/2), vs. NAU (3/4), at PSU (3/7), at Sac St. (3/9)
Key Players (Conference stats only):
Ahmaad Rorie, Guard, Sr.
15.1ppg, 3.9rpg, 3.9apg, 46.6 fg%
Jamar Akoh, Forward, Sr.
16.2ppg, 8.8rpg, 58.8 fg%, 6.6fta
Sayeed Pridgett, Guard, Jr.
15.1ppg, 5.9rpg, 60.4 fg%, 55 3fg%
When senior Jamar Akoh left a blowout win over Idaho with an injury, it appeared as though Montana was sitting at the intersection of bad luck and bad timing. Throughout the nonconference season the Grizzlies were not the same team when Akoh could not suit up, and upcoming games against EWU and UNC threatened to knock Montana from their perch atop the Big Sky. In those two games, we learned what the Grizzlies’ basketball team is when you remove the anchor of their offense: a better defending, more athletic version of the Montana State Bobcats.
A lot of touches normally distributed to Akoh went to Sayeed Pridgett, and the junior made the most of those extra touches. Through the three games without Akoh, Pridgett averaged over 23 points per game while shooting 30/43 (69.7%) from the field, and Montana needed all of Pridgett’s production to overcome an off night from Ahmaad Rorie against EWU, and an incredible second half from Jerrick Harding at Weber State. The Grizzles then handled Idaho State while running their active winning streak to nine games, and will have a week to determine Akoh’s status before their next game at home against Montana State.
Three-quarters through the conference season, Montana has the clear profile of the league’s best team. Against their peers in the top five of the conference, the Grizzles are 5-1, they have the second best scoring offense (81.4ppg), the second best scoring defense (69.4ppg), the best scoring margin (+12.1), the best field goal percentage (49.6%), the second best field goal percentage defense (42.6%), the best rebounding margin (+5.9), and the second best turnover margin (+2.2). Put simply, Montana is as good as anybody on both sides of the ball, and they field enough talent to win games with defense and/or with offense. Though the Grizzles have two tests remaining this season (at home vs. Montana State and Northern Colorado), expect Montana to earn another Big Sky regular season championship and as favorable a path exists in the conference tournament. The Grizzlies seem to have learned the needed lessons from back-to-back early losses to Portland State and EWU, and though Akoh’s health does matter in projecting their performance in the conference tournament, this team looks poised to secure the third back-to-back NCAA tournament berths in program history.
Picture via GoGriz.com
About the Author
Brian Marceau Brian Marceau writes fiction, teaches, and covers University of Idaho men's basketball for Tubs At The Club, all while voluntarily enduring Idaho Vandal football games. He is a retired connoisseur of $4-and-under wines, an unrepentant coffee snob, and a follower of Big Sky football and basketball.
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