Griz Remain on Top Despite Early Stumbles
As we approach the end of January, things are starting to get clearer in the Big Sky Conference men’s basketball picture. The Montana Mint’s Brian Marceau (@BrianMarceau) breaks things down for us with another ranking.
The There Is A Bottom, Right? Tier
Sacramento State
Record: 7-8
Conference: 1-5
Last Week: vs. ISU (70-72), at NAU (66-64), at SUU (71-76)
Upcoming: vs. Idaho (1/24), vs. EWU (1/26), at ISU (1/31), at Weber St. (2/2)
Key Players (Conference only stats):
Marcus Graves, Guard, Sr.
16ppg, 4.2apg, 37.8 fg%, 15fga
Joshua Patton, Center, Jr.
14ppg, 5.5rpg, 64.2 fg%, 8.8fga
Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, Guard, Jr.
8.3ppg, 30.2 fg%, 10.5fga, 26.8 3fg%, 6.8 3fga
Analysis
Though the Hornets are still last in the Big Sky in points per game (66.3ppg), narrow losses to Idaho State and Southern Utah, and a season first win at NAU shaved seven points off Sacramento State’s league worst point differential (down to -9.2). Point guard Marcus Graves had his two best shooting performances of the conference season while scoring 27 against Idaho State and 24 against Southern Utah, increasing his field goal percentage in conference by six points (up to 37.8%), and while his down game against NAU should have signaled another disappointing night for the Hornets, junior center Joshua Patton stepped up and essentially won the game on his own (35 points, 11 rebounds) as the lone Hornet to score in double-figures.
Even with the run of close games, the picture in Sacramento is still relatively grim. The Hornets field the eighth worst scoring defense (75.5 ppg), they shoot ninth worst from the field (42%), and surrender the ninth worst field goal percentage on the defensive end (48.1%). Games against Idaho and EWU at home feel like must-wins if the Hornets hope to finish above last in conference, and though Graves’ improved performance is promising, as is Patton’s first two conference games avoiding foul trouble (zero at NAU, one at SUU), they’ll need multiple players to show up on the offensive end like they did in the two point loss to Idaho State to be competitive. There’s obvious improvement, including Sacramento State’s first two games in conference accruing an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) over 100, but until the Hornets find a basic level of offensive competence, wins will be scarce. Games at Idaho State and Weber State feel like safe losses to project, particularly if junior guard Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, a great candidate to emerge as the third scorer for the Hornets, continues to shoot 30% from the field on more than ten attempts per game.
Idaho
Record: 4-13
Conference: 1-5
Last Week: vs. MSU (67-77), vs. Montana (51-69)
Upcoming: at Sac. St. (1/24), at PSU (1/26), vs. NAU (2/2), vs. SUU (2/4)
Key Players:
Trevon Allen, Guard, Jr.
19.5ppg, 55.8 fg%, 14.3fga, 54 3fg%, 4 3fga, 2.3apg, 2.2topg
Cameron Tyson, Guard, Fr.
14.7ppg, 39.5 3fg%, 7.2 3fga, 45.3 fg%, 10.7fga
Jared Rodriguez, Forward, Fr.
11.3ppg, 7rpg, 44.9 fg%, 8.2fga
Analysis
Idaho fans need to console themselves in the overall youth of their roster (one total junior), and the fact that half of their six conference games have come against the top three teams in the league, while the other half have been against teams fluctuating from not-awful-to-okay. Losses at home to Montana State and Montana were predictable, and the culprit for the Vandals in both games was the combination of abysmal defense (defensive ratings of 113.3 and 111.3, respectively), and tepid offense, which has been par for the course as Idaho fields the tenth worst scoring offense (68.8ppg) and the ninth worst scoring defense (77.5 ppg allowed). Junior Trevon Allen continued to put up points, scoring 23 against the Bobcats and 24 against the Grizzlies while shooting a combined 57%, but if Idaho is going to continue to surrender easy points (not one conference game with a defensive rating below 104, and four with ratings of 111 or worse), some of the underclassmen will need to score reliably. Cameron Tyson has had his moments, scoring 19 in the conference opener against Idaho State then 27 in the following game against Weber State, but against the Montana schools his inability to create his own shot led to two of Tyson’s worst Big Sky performances (19 total points on 33% shooting). The same goes for freshman forward Jared Rodriguez, who put up decent numbers against the Bobcats (9 points, 6 rebounds) and Grizzlies (10 points, 9 rebounds), but against the backdrop of the Vandals’ defense, those performances were not enough.
The best news for the Vandals came off the court, with the announcement that former four-star recruit Jack Wilson has transferred from Oregon State to Idaho and will be eligible to play during next year’s second semester. The freshman center did not play his senior year of high school due to a back injury and saw few minutes of action for the Beavers, but a transfer of that magnitude has the potential to change the landscape of Big Sky basketball similar to the way Martin Breunig’s transfer from the University of Washington to the University of Montana did from 2014 to 2016, provided Wilson’s health and expected production materialize.
If Idaho’s youth is going to turn the corner this year, the time to do so is now. The next four games are all winnable, particularly the first two where the Vandals battle it out for ownership of the Big Sky cellar against their one-win-compatriots at Sacramento State and at Portland State. Portland State’s league worst defense may be the recipe for second and third Vandal scorers to produce, while Sacramento State’s offense could give Idaho their first respectable defensive showing in conference. NAU will pit the two youngest Big Sky teams against each other, where it may become clear whether NAU’s superior start compared to the Vandals is a function of scheduling or a real edge on the developmental curve.
Portland State
Record: 6-11
Conference: 1-5
Last Week: vs. Weber St. (88-95 OT), at SUU (69-83), at NAU (75-82)
Upcoming: vs. EWU (1/24), vs. Idaho (1/26), at Weber St. (1/31), at ISU (2/2)
Key Players:
Holland Woods, Guard, So.
15.5ppg, 4.5apg, 32.1 fg%, 13.5fga, 25 3fg%, 4.7 3fga, 5.2topg
Michael Mayhew, Guard, Sr.
9.3ppg, 41.9 fg%, 36.7 3fg%, 5 3fga
Robert McCoy, Forward, Jr.
9.3ppg, 6.7rpg, 40.4 fg%, 15 3fg%, 3.3 3fga
Analysis
Pining Portland State’s opening struggles to one or two specific variables is not simple. The Vikings did open with Northern Colorado, Montana, and Weber State as three of their first four league games, but Portland State pulled off a surprise overtime win in Missoula then forced Weber State to overtime just a few nights later. It looked like the Vikings were coming together, but against SUU and NAU, Portland State came out with two of their three worst Big Sky offensive showings (offensive rating below 100 in each game). As long as the Vikings field the worst scoring defense in the conference (84.2ppg), no shows on the offensive end will result in more losses.
Part of the Vikings’ struggles hang on the shoulders of preseason All-Big Sky selection Holland Woods. Since scoring 28 points on 11 shots in an overtime win against the University of Montana, Woods has shot 30.4% on 46 attempts. He made up for his poor shooting (5-for-19) against Weber State by dishing out ten assists, but against SUU and NAU, the sophomore point guard coupled subpar shooting with turnovers (six and eight, respectively), while handing out a total of three assists. Obviously the Vikings’ losses do not belong solely to Woods, and it would help Portland State’s cause if a second or third Viking would become reliable offensive options (not one other player averages double-figures in conference), but Woods’ negative assist-to-turnover ratio in conference and his shooting percentage at volume are problems for Portland State to rectify if the Vikings want to climb toward the middle of the conference.
If the opening few weeks are a mirage for Portland State, the next two weeks offer three must-win matchups. Games hosting EWU and Idaho are great chances for the Vikings to pick up their second Big Sky win (and first in the new Viking Pavilion). EWU and Idaho will likely consider the Vikings’ defense a welcome site, though Idaho’s ninth worst defense and EWU’s tenth worst field goal percentage defense will be a beacon for Portland State as well. The Vikings already played Weber State tough in Portland, though the environment will be different at Ogden, particularly if Weber State rounds into the next week atop the conference after their matchup in Missoula. Idaho State could be a matchup of the two most desperate teams in the Big Sky, with each currently falling short of preseason expectations.
The If We’re Not Bad, Then What Are We? Tier
Northern Arizona
Record: 5-12
Conference: 3-4
Last Week: at SUU (82-84), vs. Sac. St. (64-66), vs. PSU (82-75)
Upcoming: vs. UNC (1/26), vs. SUU (1/28), at Idaho (2/2), at EWU (2/4)
Key Players:
Jonathan Andre, Forward, So.
13.4ppg, 8.4rpg, 48.1 fg%, 11fga
Ted McCree, Guard, Jr.
13ppg, 48.6 3fg%, 5.3 3fga, 44.1 fg%, 9.7fga
Carlos Hines, Guard, So.
11.3ppg, 5.3apg, 33.8 fg%, 11.8fga, 20.6 3fg%, 5.7 3fga
Analysis
Northern Arizona has to be disappointed after dropping a pair of two-point games that would have given the Lumberjacks wins against all Big Sky opponents outside of the league’s top two teams (Montana and Weber State). Offensive balance has been the name of the game for NAU, where the Lumberjacks had four or more players score in double-figures in their three wins and two close losses, while just two Lumberjacks hit that mark in lopsided losses against Montana and Weber State. In that span, no Lumberjack has scored more than 22, and only twice has an NAU player scored 20 or more.
In the next two weeks, NAU has a reasonable chance to move above .500, and a great chance to move past last year’s total of five wins. Northern Colorado will be looking to rebound from losses to Montana and Weber State, and NAU’s okay defense (seventh points in allowed, 75ppg) will be tested by Big Sky scoring leader Jordan Davis. The next three games are all winnable, and should help determine whether NAU’s youth has truly rounded a corner. In games the Lumberjacks shoot 42% or better, which happen to be all the games where NAU has had a handful of double-figure scorers, the Lumberjacks look like they can compete with almost anyone. Conversely, NAU’s defense allowed opponents to shoot near 50% in three of their four losses, suggesting the Lumberjacks can also lose to just about anyone.
Idaho State
Record: 7-9
Conference: 3-4
Last Week: at Sac St. (72-70), at Weber St. (59-76), vs. UNC (53-77)
Upcoming: at Montana (1/24), at MSU (1/26), vs. Sac St. (1/31), vs. PSU (2/2)
Key Players:
Balint Mocsan, Guard, Jr.
11.7ppg, 40.8 3fg%, 7 3fga, 43.1 fg%, 9.3fga
Brandon Boyd, Guard, Jr.
11.9ppg, 37.5 fg%, 11.4fga, 18.5 3fg%, 3.9 3fga, 3.6apg
Kelvin Jones, Center, Jr.
9.3ppg, 6.6rpg, 50 fg%, 8.3fga, 2.1bpg
Analysis
Idaho State is yet another team that must be ecstatic to see two of the three one-win Big Sky teams in their near future. The Bengals play at a slower pace, making their tenth place scoring offense (66.9ppg) feel more strategic than incidental, but pace does not explain Idaho State’s league worst field goal percentage (40.2%), ninth worst three point percentage (32.8%), or tenth fewest free throw attempts, though those stats do explain why the Bengals’ only win over the last two weeks was a two-point margin over one-win Sacramento State. After 53 in a 24 point loss to Northern Colorado where Idaho State accrued two assists, shot 2-for-17 from distance, and earned their third league game with an offensive rating in the mid-eighties, the Bengal faithful must hope this roster has found its bottom.
Promising news could be on the horizon in the form of home games vs Sacramento State and Portland State, but Idaho State must first travel to the Montanas. The Bengals will have to be at their best to keep it competitive in Missoula and Bozeman, where both schools will throw out the welcome mat for Idaho State’s soft defense (two conference games with a defensive rating below 100). Once Idaho State returns home, their matchups the following week with conference’s current cellar dwellers are must-wins if the Bengals hope to stay in the running for a first round bye in Boise, though remaining near .500 will be difficult if junior guard Balint Mocsan remains the only reliable Idaho State shooter.
Eastern Washington
Record: 5-12
Conference: 3-3
Last Week: vs. Montana (78-71), vs. MSU (85-81)
Upcoming: at PSU (1/24), at Sac St (1/26), vs. SUU, vs. NAU
Key Players:
Mason Peatling, Forward, Jr.
17.8ppg, 6.2rpg, 59.2 fg%, 11.8 fga
Jesse Hunt, Forward, Sr.
11.7ppg, 9.3rpg, 39.7 fg%, 2.8apg
Jacob Davison, Guard, So.
12.3ppg, 40.6 fg%, 11.5fga, 18.2 3fg%, 3.7 3fga
Analysis
During their first four conference games, EWU’s roster sans Mason Peatling was shooting a combined 36% from the field, giving the Eagles an offense that would have stopped any collection of talent from amassing wins. Against both Montana schools, the rest of the Eagles finally showed up. Five Eagles scored in double figures in a seven-point win over the Grizzlies, where the Eagles shot over 50% from three while posting their best offensive rating of the conference season (114.7), that is until four players hit double-figures and EWU shot 57.9% while registering an offensive rating of 119.7 in a four point win over the Bobcats. After the two wins, EWU’s .500 conference record feels appropriate for a team with a near middle-of-the-pack scoring offense (seventh in conference, 72.3ppg) and near middle-of-the-pack scoring defense (fifth in conference, 73.3ppg) that seems one player short of contending for the league’s top tier.
The next four games are all winnable for EWU if Peatling’s help continues to show up. EWU has posted a single Big Sky game with a defensive rating below 100, making them vulnerable to a team like Portland State that relies on its offense to stay competitive. Sacramento State should be a second strong matchup for the Eagles, leaving games at home against SUU and NAU as indicators as to whether EWU will compete for a bye in the Big Sky tournament, or whether their consecutive wins against stronger conference opponents came solely on the back of strong shooting (52.9% from three vs. Montana, 46.2% from three vs. Montana State) that EWU will see sparingly through the rest of the season.
Southern Utah
Record: 9-7
Conference: 4-3
Last Week: vs. NAU (84-82), vs. PSU (83-69), vs. Sac. St. (76-71)
Upcoming: at UNC (1/24), at NAU (1/28), at EWU (2/2), at Idaho (2/4)
Key Players:
Cameron Oluyitan, Guard, Jr.
16.3ppg, 50 3fg%, 4.9 3fga, 52.8 fg%, 10.3fga, 4.4rpg
Jacob Calloway, Forward, Jr.
12.7ppg, 49.3 fg%, 9.9fga, 5.6rpg
Andre Adams, Forward, So.
10.1ppg, 6.6rpg, 50 fg%, 7.1fga
Analysis
SUU opened the year losing their first three Big Sky games by an average of 21 points per game, making their overtime win at Weber State feel like Cedar City’s one shining moment. Now the Thunderbirds own a four game winning streak, helped in part by playing two one-win teams, leaving us to wonder what to make of SUU. In their three opening losses, the Thunderbirds mixed purging points (defensive ratings between 115-127) with a tepid at best offense (offensive ratings all below 100, twice below 90). In three of their four wins, the Thunderbirds’ defense came to play (defensive ratings below 100) with the one anomaly coming in SUU’s best offensive game of the year (offensive rating of 120 vs. NAU). The winning streak has also coincided with improved output from leading scorer and Boise State transfer Cameron Oluyitan, with the junior guard averaging 13ppg in losses and just under 19 during the four game winning streak. Similar praise can be given to Arizona State transfer Andre Adams. The junior forward played sparingly in opening losses to the Montana schools, but during the winning streak has averaged just over 15 points and 8 rebounds per contest.
If SUU’s improved play holds up, we could be looking at a team with a strong chance at a first round bye in Boise. Northern Colorado will be tough for the Thunderbirds, but NAU and EWU look like coinflips, and one-win Idaho closes out SUU’s next two weeks. The Thunderbirds will likely ride their fourth place scoring offense (77ppg) more than their tenth place scoring defense (81.9ppg) to prove their 4-3 conference record is a better indicator of this team’s overall performance than their eighth worst point differential (-4.9), a metric where only the three one-win Big Sky teams sit below SUU. We started out conference play with SUU cited as the Big Sky’s single most unreadable team, a status the Thunderbirds have yet to shake through seven conference games.
The Is It Okay To Be Excited? Tier
Montana State
Record: 7-10
Conference: 4-3
Last Week: at Idaho (77-67), vs. UNC (70-73), at EWU (81-85)
Upcoming: vs. Weber St. (1/24), vs. ISU (1/26), vs. Montana (2/2), at UNC (2/4)
Key Players:
Harald Frey, Guard, Jr.
17.1ppg, 5.3apg, 4.3rpg, 45.8 fg%, 11.9fga, 41.7 3fg%, 5.1 3fga
Tyler Hall, Guard, Sr.
20.3ppg, 46.7 fg%, 15.3fga, 39.1 3fg%, 9.1 3fga, 4.7rpg
Keljin Blevins, Forward, Sr.
10.7ppg, 6.4rpg, 42.9 fg%, 9fga, 5fta
Analysis
The Bobcats have to be disappointed after dropping close but winnable games at home against Northern Colorado and on the road at EWU. There’s a chance the feeling of ascension we had from the Bobcats before UNC and EWU should be attributed to a soft opening schedule, where Montana State’s three game winning streak after opening 1-1 came at the expense of all three one-win Big Sky teams. The good news for Bobcat fans is Tyler Hall now owns the all-time Big Sky scoring record, a huge accomplishment considering Hall still has more than ten games to pad his total.
Though Hall is the easiest name to summon when dissecting Montana State, the Bobcats do not hold a winning record on in conference his back alone. Junior guard Harald Frey is the other Bobcat guard putting together an All-Big Sky level season, though in losses to UNC and EWU he averaged just 9 points (he averages 17 in conference) while shooting 35% on 20 attempts. Senior Keljin Blevins had struggled until scoring 23 while picking up for Frey’s slack in the loss to EWU, and sophomore forward/center Devin Kirby averages just below ten points in conference while grabbing almost seven rebounds per game while giving the Montana State a needed post presence.
Mixed with the both steady (scoring) and rocky (efficiency) performance of Hall, Montana State carries the second best scoring offense into a four game stretch that puts the Bobcats against three of the four teams above them in conference standings. With Hall and Frey averaging almost forty points between them in Big Sky play, the Bobcats can shoot themselves into any game. Montana State could benefit from Weber State looking past them to their matchup with Montana, and if the Bobcats can pullout wins against the Wildcats and Idaho State, their game in Missoula on February 2 could be a contest for first in league, though that feels like a stretch considering the Bobcats’ best conference win came back in December against a freefalling SUU that appears to have righted its ship. Finishing their rough two week stretch at .500 should be considered a victory for Montana State, with avenging a three point loss to UNC looking like the Bobcats’ best chance at a signature conference win.
Northern Colorado
Record: 12-7
Conference: 6-2
Last Week: vs. Montana (64-88), at MSU (73-70), at Weber St. (64-78), at ISU (77-53)
Upcoming: vs. SUU (1/24), at NAU (1/26), vs. MSU (2/4)
Key Players:
Jordan Davis, Guard, Sr.
23.9ppg, 4.9apg, 4.4rpg, 47.2 fg%, 17.8fga, 37.8 3fg%
Bodie Hume, Guard, Fr.
15.8ppg, 4rpg, 40.4 3fg%, 7.1 3fga, 46.3 fg%, 10fga
Jonah Radebaugh, Guard, Jr.
8ppg, 5.5rpg, 3.3apg, 30.3 fg%, 17.9 3fg%, 4.9 3fga
Analysis
The good news for Northern Colorado is eight games into conference play, the Bears are unquestionably a top-three team. UNC’s initial undefeated start can be partly attributed to playing the three one-win teams back-to-back-to-back, but in the five games since the Bears have beaten all but the conference’s elite. The bad news for Bear fans, after a 24 point home loss to Montana and a 14 point road loss to Weber State, is the gap between them and the conference’s elite may be larger than initially understood.
In starting the season 4-0, the formula for UNC was quite simple: Jordan Davis and Bodie Hume combined for around 45 points on high-efficiency shooting, and provided the rest of the roster contributed nominally on the offensive end, the incredible play of Davis and Hume almost guaranteed the Bears an offensive ratings well above 100. Against all but the league’s best, that game plan has worked—though in a recent 24 point win over Idaho State, junior guard Jonah Radebaugh, who contributes across the box score in addition to often guarding the opposing team’s leading scorer, broke through for his best offensive Big Sky game of the season (16 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 turnovers). In the bad losses to Montana and Weber State, Davis and Hume combined for less than their initial threshold of around 45, and no other Bear stepped up the way Radebaugh did against Idaho State, or the combination of Trent Harris and Jalen Sanders did against Montana State. In the two losses to Montana and Weber State, UNC also recorded their only two conference games with offensive ratings below 100, while the Bears’ often strong defense (allowed 69.5ppg, second in league) surrendered its two worst showings in league play (defensive ratings of 123.9 vs Montana and 109.9 vs Weber State).
UNC will have to wait to prove whether the losses to Montana and Weber State were anomalies while the Bears play three midlevel Big Sky teams through the next two weeks. SUU has improved on the offensive end significantly, and the Montana State could have handled UNC at home had the guard combination of Harald Frey and Keljin Blevins shot better than 7-for-25. The rematch in Greeley will be a chance for the Bobcats to prove the top tier deserves another member, while giving UNC another chance to show that their only Big Sky peers occupy our two top spots.
The If You Have To Ask, You Don’t Belong Tier
Weber State
Record: 12-6
Conference: 6-1
Last Week: at PSU (95-88 OT), vs. ISU (76-59), vs. NCU (78-64)
Upcoming: at MSU (1/24), at Montana (1/26), vs. PSU (1/31), vs. Sac St. (2/2)
Key Players:
Jerrick Harding, Guard, Jr.
21.4ppg, 47 fg%, 14.9fga, 36.1 3fg%, 5.1 3fga
Cody John, Guard, Jr.
14.6ppg, 51.3 fg%, 10.9fga, 36.4 3fg%, 3.1 3fga, 3.6rpg
Brekkott Chapman, Forward, Sr.
15.1ppg, 11.3rpg, 2.1apg, 53.2 fg%, 11fga, 32.4 3fg%, 5.3 3fga, 2bpg
Analysis
Weber State did their best to drop two in a row after losing to SUU in overtime while shooting 35% from the field. Twenty Wildcat turnovers extended their win against Portland State to overtime, and since then Weber State returned to their casual winning ways, where all but one Big Sky win has been a double-figure difference, with the one single-digit win at Idaho coming after the Wildcats built a more than twenty-point first half lead. Particularly impressive in recent wins has been the Weber State defense, which held Idaho State to 33% shooting, and at the time one-loss Northern Colorado to 37% from the field. The Wildcats lead the Big Sky in scoring offense at 83.6ppg, and with the recent successes against ISU and UNC (defensive rating of 84.3 and 90.1, respectively), the Weber State defense has moved up to fourth in conference (73.1ppg).
At the individual level, part of why the Wildcats look better than almost every Big Sky team can be attributed to starting four All-Big Sky level talents. Jerrick Harding is second in the conference in scoring, while fellow junior guard Cody John is another playmaker defenses must account for. Senior forward Zach Braxton averages 11ppg on only 5.3 shots per game, and their other forward, senior Brekkot Chapman, looks like the most versatile forward in the entire conference while averaging a double-double and moonlighting as one of the conference’s most versatile defenders. There is a bit of a drop off for Weber State once we get to the bench, but aside from the explainable loss to SUU and the attempted upset against PSU, relying on the top four hasn’t been a problem.
With matchups against two of the bottom three Big Sky teams to close out January, the test for Weber State in the next two weeks will be their upcoming trip to the Montana schools. The Bobcats have one of the top three backcourts in the league to go with their second best scoring offense, though barring incredible nights from both Tyler Hall and Harald Frey, the complimentary pieces of Weber State should be too much for Montana State. If Weber State can handle the Bobcats in Bozeman, we’ll see a clash of the top teams in conference when the Wildcats head to Missoula. Weber State holds a one-game lead in conference, but on paper the Grizzlies are the only team with a top-four to contend with the Wildcats, and with Montana expected to make a run for the NCAA tournament, the game at Dahlberg Arena should see a full house. Montana has the stronger defense of the two, and may have the only backcourt athletic enough to challenge Harding and John on both ends of the court. Whether Weber State can slow Akoh, or whether Akoh can draw fouls on the combination of Braxton and Chapman, will go a long way in determining who comes out on top in what should be the most exciting matchup of the conference season.
Montana
Record: 12-6
Conference: 5-2
Last Week: at EWU (71-78), at UNC (88-64), at Idaho (69-51)
Upcoming: vs. ISU (1/24), vs. Weber St. (1/26), at MSU (2/2)
Key Players:
Ahmaad Rorie, Guard, Sr.
17.4ppg, 49.5 fg%, 14.1fga, 38.6 3fg%, 6.3 3fga, 3.7rpg, 3apg
Jamar Akoh, Forward, Sr.
15.9ppg, 58.6 fg%, 10fga, 8.7rpg
Sayeed Pridgett, Forward, Jr.
13.3ppg, 56.9 fg%, 10.3fga, 4.9rpg
Analysis
Montana lost their second consecutive game of conference play at EWU on the back of their worst defensive performance (defensive rating of 114.7) since the blowout loss at Creighton. The Grizzlies responded by dominating Northern Colorado from start to finish and handling Idaho, accruing defensive ratings of 90.1 and 82.3, respectively.
Worth noting for Grizzly fans heading into matchups with ISU, and possibly playing Weber State in a battle for first place in conference, is the recent slump of Jamar Akoh. The senior forward opened the conference averaging 22 through the first three games, but has averaged just over 11 in the following four. Part of the struggle is foul trouble, which limited Akoh against PSU, EWU, and UNC, and part is the concerted effort of teams to make life hard for Akoh near the basket. Montana has the talent to make up for the lower levels of post production they’ve received, with Sayeed Pridgett scoring a career high 29 against UNC, and Ahmaad Rorie leading the way with 20 points on 14 shots at Idaho, never mind senior guard Michael Oguine averaging over 13ppg on just over eight shots per contest, but it’s a point worth watching heading into their next three games against teams that will all compete for a bye in the first round of the Big Sky tournament. It has not hurt the Grizzlies on paper, where Montana has the third best scoring offense (80.6ppg), the best scoring defense (67.9ppg), and the best scoring margin (+12.7) in conference, but if Akoh’s production does not return to the near twenty per game level of the start of Big Sky play, it will represent a significant shift in offensive strategy for the Grizzlies, and one Montana likely hopes it does not have to make.
As far as the individual matchups are concerned, Idaho State will need to shoot well from three to contend with the Grizzlies, though Montana has shown the ability to look past opponents. Weber State in Missoula should be the best matchup of the young conference season. Both teams field two of the league’s best backcourts matched by two of the league’s best frontcourts. If Akoh and Pridgett are getting touches near the basket, both Brekkot Chapman and Zach Braxton of Weber State could be looking at early foul trouble, though the same can be said of Chapman and Braxton on the offensive end with Akoh and Pridgett on defense. Rorie and Oguine are probably the best two-way backcourt in the league, but Jerrick Harding and Cody John may be the best scoring backcourt. The game feels like a preview of the Big Sky championship in March, particularly after both Montana and Weber State handled Northern Colorado last week. Of the two, Weber State looks to be the most secure in its identity, while Montana’s ultimate ceiling feels higher.
Cover Photo via GoGriz.com
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About the Author
Brian Marceau Brian Marceau writes fiction, teaches, and covers University of Idaho men's basketball for Tubs At The Club, all while voluntarily enduring Idaho Vandal football games. He is a retired connoisseur of $4-and-under wines, an unrepentant coffee snob, and a follower of Big Sky football and basketball.
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