Hashtag MTPOL Montana Primary Night Live Blog
Update: House Race Too Close to Call! – #MTPOL (UPDATE – 1:20 am by John Hansen, editor, hashtag MTPOL)
Outspent by John Hennan by nearly 3.5 to 1, Kathleen Williams was an underdog. However, Hennan and Williams are neck and neck this morning, with Williams leading Heenan 34,751 to 33,379 with 87% reporting. Regardless of the outcome, Williams has clearly punched above her weight. We look forward to keeping you updated on this race!
Update: Rosendale Wins! – #MTSEN – #MTPOL (UPDATE – 11:50 pm by John Hansen, editor, hashtag MTPOL)
With 132,820 votes and 55% reporting, the New York Times has declared Matt Rosendale the winner of the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. Rosendale will face incumbent Senator Jon Tester this November. Congratulations, State Auditor Rosendale!
Key Race Alert – We are calling the following races – (UPDATE – 11:13 pm Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
Republican primary for State House District 21 goes to Ed Buttrey, who currently has 76 percent of the vote. Congratulations Ed!
Democratic primary for State House District 92 goes to Lee Bridges, who currently has 66 percent of the vote. Congratulations Lee!
Republican primary for State Senate District 29 goes to David Howard, who currently has 72 percent of the vote. Congratulations David!
Other legislative races still too close to call: House Districts 25 and 81 and Senate Districts 14 and 43.
Podcasts – (UPDATE – 10:23 – by Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
Last fall as a way to stay engaged with Montana politics, I started a podcast called the Montana Middle. It’s non-partisan and I’ve had several US House and Senate primary candidates on the show this spring. It’s been great getting to know each of them. They are available on the Montana Middle website, and on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, and Stitcher.
Here they are too:
US Senate Primary Candidates
US House Primary Candidates
Also – don’t forget to subscribe to the Montana Mint’s politics newsletter, hashtag MTPOL (subscribe here). It includes political analysis from the team that brought you tonight’s live blog, and provides you tremendous photoshops like this one:
Update – #MTSEN and #MTAL – (UPDATE – 10:00 pm – by Bear Tycoon, the richest bear in the forest)
Things are slowly starting to take shape.
On the Republican Senate race, Matt Rosendale holds a slight lead over Judge Russ Fagg 28,133 to 26,391 with 45% of the votes in. It’s a two man race at this point. This has got to be a huge disappoint for Troy Downing, who poured lots of money into what looks like a failed shot to take on Jon Tester. FWIW, CNN seems to have the best numbers on this race (not sure how theyre beating the Secretary of State’s website).
The best numbers for the Dem primary to face off against Greg Gianforte are from the NYTimes (again, not sure how they’re beating SoS). As we predicted earlier in the night, Kathleen Williams is putting in a strong showing, currently holding a 0.9% lead over Heenan (23,211 to 22,580). Grant Kier is in a distant third. Based on the early numbers, Williams clearly has more of a statewide appeal, but Heenan is going to get a big injection of votes once Yellowstone county fully reports. Complete toss up at this point.
Looking good Montana – (UPDATE – 9:12 pm Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
Update – #MTSEN – Kathleen Williams out to an early lead (9:00 pm – by The Dean, the most knowledgeable man in Montana politics)
With a strong showing in her home base of Gallatin County and strong showings in Missoula and Helena, Kathleen Williams holds a small lead over John Heenan, with Grant Kier in third place. Will be interesting to see if this trend holds as other county results come in.
Turn out update – (UPDATE – 8:58 pm by Calamity Jane, Political Editor, Montana Mint)
According to U of M political scientist David Parker, absentee ballots have around a 60% return rate, suggesting a high turn out for in person voters. That could mean that these races could be closer than we anticipated if more folks are motivated to vote for their candidates. Stay tuned as more county results come in!
Key Race Alert – Call for SD41 (UPDATE – 8:48 pm Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
We are calling the Democratic primary for State Senate District 41 for Janet Ellis. It’s early, but she has 83 percent of the vote. Congratulations Janet! Michael Uda, we hope you run again. Remember, we’re tracking the following legislative primaries. House Districts 21, 25, 81 and 92 and Senate Districts 14, 21, 29, 41 and 43.
Victory Party Updates – the favorites (UPDATE – 8:39 pm by Bear Tycoon, the richest bear in the forest)
Checking in on the victory for the perceived front runners John Heenan and Matt Rosendale.
Heenan’s party looks pretty crowded, but everyone is seated and waving tepidly. Probably lots of nerves.
Rosendale’s party looks super polished. If he wins, he seems like the real deal (or at least a guy that can play the part)
Legislative Preview: Rural Races (UPDATE – 8:28 pm Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
Senate District 43 (Bitterroot Valley): Republican incumbent Patrick Connell is facing a primary challenge from Jason Ellsworth and Scott Roy McLean, as well as Laura Garber who is running as an independent. In 2014, Connell won his primary by less than 100 votes, but then went on to win the general with 70 percent of the vote. Let’s see if he can survive tonight.
Senate District 29 (Carbon, Sweet Grass and Stillwater Counties, in between Billings and Bozeman): Republican incumbent David Howard is being challenged by Andrew Forcier, a former Libertarian candidate for House District 67 in 2016. Howard narrowly won his primary in his last election, but then won over two-thirds of the vote in the general.
House District 92 (Missoula County, Seeley Lake and Swan Valley): Republican incumbent Mike Hopkins is facing primary challengers Larry Dunham, and DJ Derek Smith. Democrats Lee Bridges and Duane Schlabach are facing off in a primary as well. Hopkins narrowly won by less than 100 votes in 2016, so this is a competitive district and a race to watch in November.
Other House incumbents facing primary challengers are Denley Loge (R-HD-14), Russ Fitzgerald (R-HD-17), Wendy Mckamey (R-HD-19). All three are heavily Republican districts.
Update – #MTSEN (8:15 pm – by The Dean, the most knowledgeable man in Montana politics)
Results are starting to come in from Yellowstone County and Russ Fagg is out to a big lead with nearly 60% of the vote. The more interesting trend here may be that Matt Rosendale is battling for second place with Troy Downing and Dr. Al Olzewski. This could be a sign of trouble for Rosendale statewide if he splits the conservative vote with Downing and Olzewski, while Fagg cleans house with more moderate Republicans.
Key Race Alert – First calls of the night (UPDATE – 8:10 pm by Calamity Jane, Political Editor, Montana Mint)
Well, we can safely say, without any same-party challengers, Jon Tester and Greg Gianforte have secured the nomination from their respective parties! We won’t know for a while – possibly a few hours – who has earned the privilege of running against these men for the next several months, but we’ll let you know here first!
Stay tuned for more analysis and insight with Hashtag MTPOL, and don’t forget to tag us in your tweets with #mtpol!
Legislative Preview: Great Falls (UPDATE – 8:04 pm Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
Here is a look at some of the local races in Great Falls…
House District 21 (Great Falls): After tonight, Democrat Leesha Ford will face either Ed Buttrey, John Abarr, or Rickey D. Linafelter. Buttrey is a term-limited State Senator and has the most name recognition. Abarr made news for being a former KKK member. Linafelter owns his own construction company and is President of the Montana Landlords Association. The incumbent, Democrat Tom Jacobson, is terming out and running for State Senate District 11.
House District 25 (Great Falls): Democrats Staci Bechard, Jasmine Krotkov, and Garrett Lankford are vying to take on Republican incumbent Jeremy Trebas. Trebas beat Lankford in 2016 by only 110 votes (1,971 to 1,861). If Lankford wins the primary tonight, we’ll be looking at a close rematch for this seat in November.
Senate District 14 (North of Great Falls to the Canadian border through Liberty County): Democrat Paul Tuss, Executive Director of Bear Paw Development Corp. will challenge either Republican incumbent Russ Tempel or his primary challenger Brad Lotten, who owns his own construction company. Tempel was appointed to this post after the previous seatholder, Kris Hansen, left to join the State Auditor’s office. Hansen won in 2016 with 56 percent of the vote, but that was only 884 votes more than her Democratic challenger (4,080 to 3,196). This race will be one to watch in November.
Polls are closed! (UPDATE – 8:00 pm by Bear Tycoon, the richest bear in the forest)
Ummmm. Polls are closed.
What others are saying: Fivethirtyeight (UPDATE – 7:54 pm by Bear Tycoon, the richest bear in the forest)
We got the idea to live blog tonight from the website fivethirtyeight.com. Here is what they had to say today on Montana’s race:
Democrat Jon Tester is a top GOP target in this R+21 state, and four Republicans want to be the one to evict him from the U.S. Senate. State Auditor Matt Rosendale has both the Republican establishment and Trumpworld in his corner, and outside groups have spent more than $1.8 million in service of his campaign. However, his “outsider” campaign is in danger of being taken too literally; opponents like former judge Russ Fagg have hammered Rosendale for having lived most of his life in Maryland as well as for attracting so much out-of-state financial support. (Fagg has in turn drawn fire from the Club for Growth and other pro-Rosendale groups, suggesting they see him as the main threat to Rosendale.) Setting aside outside money, Troy Downing, the CEO of a California-based storage company, has spent the most money of any candidate (most of it his own). He has lashed himself to Trump so tightly that he even touted an endorsement from former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, but Downing faces criminal charges for allegedly buying resident-only hunting and fishing licenses when he lived out of state.
Conversely, Republican Greg Gianforte, Montana’s lone U.S. House member, has been a Democratic target ever since he won a 2017 special election by 6 points after body-slamming a reporter. Three Democrats have the resources to run serious campaigns, and their primary is the latest skirmish in the electability-vs.-ideology debate. Attorney John Heenan styles himself a proud populist in the tradition of both Sanders (who won Montana’s 2016 Democratic primary) and Trump (who carried the state in the general election) and supports universal health care. Former land-trust director Grant Kier advocates for an end to partisan vitriol and is more cautious on the issues as well. Former state Rep. Kathleen Williams seems to sit between the two — for example, she supports Medicare for everyone … over age 55. Kier leads the money race; if he can translate that into a victory in the actualrace, it will be good news for Democrats in November.
Check out their full article here.
What to look for: Geography (UPDATE – 7:39 by The Dean, the most knowledgeable man in Montana politics)
Results will be coming in slowly throughout the night, but we can start seeing trends right away. Here is what I’m looking at in Montana’s seven major metro areas.
Flathead County – Al Olszewski hasn’t raised a lot of money or had a very visible campaign statewide. If he is to have a surprise victory he’ll need to gather a lot of votes in his home county, which is full of conservative voters who are receptive to his message.
Missoula County – Here we’ll be watching the House Democratic primary. This is Grant Kier’s home turf and he’ll need a big margin here to propel him for a statewide win. If John Heenan is running ahead statewide, it will be interesting to see how he’s doing in Missoula as an indicator of unity and enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
Butte Silver Bow – Butte, as we all know, is a Democratic stronghold and will be key in determining the winner of the House primary. Turnout here will be a good indicator of Democratic enthusiasm statewide
Helena (Lewis and Clark County) – None of the candidates in GOP Senate primary or in the Democratic House Primary call Helena home, so this area of the state would seem to be up for grabs. The county leans fairly Democratic in general elections.
Great Falls (Cascade County) – Like Helena, none of the candidates call Cascade County home. The county has been fairly competitive in recent general elections, so if we see the winner of the House Democratic primary or the Senate Republican primary doing well here, it could be a sign of things to come in November.
Bozeman (Gallatin County) – Gallatin County has been trending Democratic in recent election cycles and will certainly be a battleground in both the House and Senate races this November. Democratic legislator Kathleen Williams calls Bozeman home and she’ll need a lot of support in Gallatin County to compete statewide against Heenan and Kier. Gallatin County still has a lot of Republican primary voters, so it will be interesting to look at the results in that race as well.
Billings (Yellowstone County) – In the Republican Senate primary, Russ Fagg will need to put up some strong numbers in his home county if he wants to compete statewide with frontrunner Matt Rosendale. And Billings will be key in November if the Republican nominee is to prevail statewide. In the House Democratic side, we’ll see if Grant Kier can compete with John Heenan in his home county.
Legislative Preview: Helena (UPDATE – 7:30 by Dan West, Host of the Montana Middle Podcast and former Congressional candidate)
Let’s take a look at some more local races, which are also on the ballot today.
When I jumped into the House special election primary last year, I got a small taste for what it takes to run a statewide campaign. The special election primary lasted only a few weeks and we only had to court a small number of state party delegates. Compare that to this regular primary, where candidates have been campaigning for months, raised and spent hundreds and thousands of dollars, and had to court as many Montanans as possible.
My hat is off to all the primary candidates who have jumped into this race, and no matter what party you affiliate with, you have to respect anyone who is willing to put themselves out there. Many scoff at politicians for being driven by ego, and sometimes that’s true, but I think most candidates are motivated to run for public service by a genuine desire to make our society better, they just disagree on how to go about it or what to prioritize. Thanks to everyone who chose to run. You’re keeping our democracy strong.
I’m talking not just about candidates vying for federal seats, but all the state and local candidates who are running too. Federal campaigns get the most attention, but we shouldn’t forget about our state legislative races that are happening tonight too.
As a quick overview, Montana has 100 House seats and 50 Senate seats. Republicans control both chambers, 59-41 in the House and 32-18 in the Senate. A two-thirds majority is required to override a gubernatorial veto, meaning Rs would have to gain 7 seats in the House to get to 67 and only 2 seats in the Senate to get to 34. This is something worth watching, given the fact that Governor Bullock, a Democrat, has issued the most vetoes of any Montana Governor.
Throughout the night I’ll be posting updates on state legislative primaries to watch. Let’s start with Helena:
- Senate District 41 (Helena) – The current seatholder, Mary Caferro, can’t run for re-election due to term limits. She’s running for House District 41 instead (see below). Janet Ellis and Michael Uda are the two Democrats running to challenge John Schmidt, a Republican. Ellis represented House District 81 for two terms and works at Montana Audubon. Uda is a lawyer who has represented the renewable energy industry and served in the US military in South Korea. John Schmidt is a pastor and a former business professional.
- House District 81 (Helena) – Mary Caferro is switching places with Janet Ellis, but only if she can defeat city councilman and attorney Rob Farris-Olsen. No Rs in the race. Whoever wins tonight will run unopposed in November.
What to look for: Turnout (UPDATE – 7:15pm by Calamity Jane, Political Editor, Montana Mint)
Everything our challengers have been working toward hinges on one thing today. No, not the President’s latest tweets about the Philadelphia Eagles; voter turnout. In presidential election years during the general election, the turnout of eligible voters hovers in the mid-70% range, which is much higher than the national turnout rate of 28.5% in 2016. But in a non-presidential primary, Montana is lucky to get more than 30% turnout.
In 2014, only 219k folks voted in the primary, while over 373k voted in the general election. In the last presidential election primary in 2016, almost 300k cast their ballots. In the general election where Trump won Montana by 20 points, nearly 517k Montanans voted. For both sets of races, between 654k-694k Montanas were eligible to votes
In our most recent statewide election, voter registration in the state cleared 700k – but that didn’t translate into higher turnout. For the Quist-Gianforte special election, only 54% of eligible voters cast a ballot.
What does that mean for tonight? Well, based on past trends, don’t expect more than 40% turnout, which translates to less than 280k votes across both parties. For House Dems and Senate Republican hopefuls – which each have four legitimate candidate – the winner may only need to secure around 30k votes to win their party’s nomination. So if you can get every person in Butte-Silverbow to vote for you, you’ve got the nomination in this election.
While “every vote counts” is a tired saying, it couldn’t be more relevant to tonight’s results. Stay with us her at Hashtag MTPOL to find out what happens!
Candidate Refresher – The Republicans (UPDATE – 6:47pm by John Hansen, editor, hashtag MTPOL)
Like the Democratic House field, the Republicans put forward four candidates. These four are vying for the right to challenge two-term Senator Jon Tester this fall. However, unlike the Democrats, the Republican field had a clear front-runner: Matt Rosendale. State Auditor Matt Rosendale holds a statewide elected office and commands more name recognition than others in the field. Tonight, we’ll see if Montana Republicans stick behind the national party and back Rosendale or decide to buck the system.
Matt Rosendale — State Auditor Rosendale has proven he can win a statewide election, has the best name recognition, and has the most support from national Republicans. That should be enough to get him the nomination this evening. However, his campaign was tripped-up by some residency issues that caused his opponents to label him “Maryland Matt.”
Russ Fagg — Fagg positioned himself as the traditional, relatively moderate Montana Republican. As a judge in Yellowstone County and fourth generation Montanan, Fagg had the benefit of labeling Rosendale and Downing as carpetbaggers. On the downside, Fagg was the subject of an onslaught of negative ads from national groups that labeled him “soft on crime.” He also put out and quickly took down (and erased from the internet) a campaign ad that was widely criticized for being extremely racist.
Troy Downing — Downing was great at finding money, but terrible at everything else. He started his campaign with controversy surrounding alleged hunting violations regarding Montana residency issues. Also, Downing subscribes to bizarre, Trumpian conspiracies which included calling the Montana Department of Fish Wildlife and Parks “The Deep State.”
Al Olszewski — Like Pettinato, Olszewski mounted an unorthodox campaign. Despite this, Dr. O has gained some momentum and even won the Montana Mint straw poll in April. Also like Pettinato, Olszewski lagged far behind in his fundraising efforts. It’s unlikely we’ll see the surgeon from Kalispell put up big numbers this evening. However, one Republican insider we spoke thinks the other candidates will split the vote, giving the good doctor a chance.
Candidate Refresher – The Democrats (UPDATE – 6:21pm by John Hansen, editor, hashtag MTPOL)
After the dust of the early primary season settled, the Democrats produced four candidates hoping to challenge incumbent, first-term congressman Greg Gianforte (R). Tonight, we’ll see which of these four candidates will move on into the general election this November.
John Heenan — The Billings attorney and businessman raised the most money and mounted the most polished and organized campaign. Heenan is a Bernie Sanders-style Democrat and was unafraid to wear his liberalism on his sleeve. He also has the advantage of being a Yellowstone County Democrat and hopes to capitalize on hailing from a large county with a relatively moderate electorate.
Grant Kier — Kier of Missoula positioned himself as the centrist in the group by opposing Medicare-for-all, opposing a $15/hr national minimum wage, and threading the needle on gun control. Kier’s policy positions closely resembles traditional Montana Democrats like former Senator Max Baucus or current Senator Jon Tester.
Kathleen Williams — Williams of Bozeman organized a solid campaign focused on healthcare. However, her sluggish fundraising held her back from having the same level of organization and name-recognition as the Heenan or Kier. Insiders tell us though that Williams has been gaining steam in recent weeks, and could be a surprise victor tonight. As a former member of the Montana State Legislature, Williams is the only remaining candidate in the Democrat field that has served in elected office.
Jared Pettinato — Pettinato of Whitefish was not ready for prime time in 2018. He had an unorthodox message focused on natural resources and was a less-polished public speaker than others in the field. Also, his fundraising lagged far behind others in the field.
UPDATE – 5:55pm
Welcome!
The Montana Mint is continuing to roll out our campaign coverage, including with a new feature tonight – a live blog of tonight’s primary returns!
We are going to be taking a close look at the results as they roll in for the Democratic candidates looking to unseat Montana’s lone congressman, Greg Gianforte, and the Republicans trying to unseat Montana’s senior senator, Jon Tester.
Our team will also be looking at turnout numbers and how candidates are performing in different parts of the state.
Check back here for frequent updates and follow all the action on Twitter at #MTPOL.
Also – Polls close at 8:00. If you haven’t already, go vote!
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