The Griz playoff hopes are (somehow) still alive
After two brutal losses in consecutive weeks, the University of Montana currently sits at 8th place in the 13-team Big Sky Conference. Hope is not all lost, however. STATS FCS released their projected playoff bracket earlier this week, and to the surprise of many they have the University of Montana HOSTING a game in the first round. How is this possible? Montana Mint Sports examines.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Frankly (and admittedly probably biasedly) don’t think it’s that outrageous to think UM will make the playoffs. They are currently 5-3, and their three remaining games are home against 11th place Idaho State, at Northern Colorado (currently 6th in the Big Sky, but pretty well understood to be pretenders), and home for the last place Bobcats. 8-3 is good enough to make the playoffs…they made it at 7-4 last year, and they won a game!
Scotty Mint (Cats fan): This year is different for a couple reasons though. Reason #1 – last year the Griz were 6-2 in Big Sky Conference Play…
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Interruption! While technically true their conference record was 6-2, they had a non-conference loss to Big Sky team Cal Poly. So they were 6-3 in games against conference teams last year, and it was a scheduling quirk that made them 6-2. I’m sure the selection committee was aware of this.
Scotty Mint (Cats fan): Reason #2 – the Griz do not have a signature win this year. Last year you opened with a huge win against defending champ North Dakota State on ESPN, and we blew Eastern Washington out of the water 57-16. This year your wins have come against St. Francis (who?), Northern Iowa (not as impressive now), Southern Utah (yawn), Mississippi Valley State (awful), and Sacramento State (awful). Even if you win out, who is your most impressive win.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): We covered a couple weeks ago, but I stand by the Northern Iowa win. And St. Francis is a playoff team. But point taken. The NDSU and EWU wins last year were signature wins…this year we only have a couple nice wins.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Here is what worries me. Let’s say Montana wins out and ends up 8-3. There could still be 4 or five teams in front of them in the Big Sky Conference. To put them in the playoffs you may have to have Montana leapfrog teams ahead of it in the conference.
Is it fair? I think so. We all know that there’s a 80% chance that the Griz will win a first round playoff game at WaGriz, and teams like Northern Colorado and Cal Poly can’t say that.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): I think it could happen, but I wouldn’t call it fair. How do you justify them hosting a playoff game in this scenario.
Z-Train (Griz fan): The first round is not about record—it’s about what’s best for the FCS. The top 8 teams get rewarded by getting first round byes. The bottom 16 get placed on geography and potential to make money. FCS doesn’t have huge travel budget so they need teams in the West to host games. And there are bubble teams that would get 2k people to show up to a first round game, where Missoula will turn out 26k.
And Montana should be rewarded. The school has put in the time and resources to give it the WaGriz advantage and history of success. They went down to Georgia Southern in 1989, lost in the semis, saw what they were doing, and made the decision to build it. Guess what? People came and continue to come in droves.
Jasper Moonshot (Griz fan): It just feels kind of dirty. UM’s home field advantage is like when a rich kid gets a brand new bat for little league. The poor kids play with their older brother’s hand-me-down bat that’s lumpy and dead. The over-whelming home field advantage at WaGriz is an artifact of the stadium and the people – both of which have nothing to do with the raw talent of the actual competitors. We don’t operate in a vacuum, and other factors are at play. But UM winning every bubble bid is an artifact of money, both generated by UM and money invested to build an advantage at home.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Other schools could do this, but they have not invested those resources. They don’t have the fan base. They don’t have the sustained success to fill a stadium.
It didn’t happen overnight for the Griz. It was progressively built over a couple decades and started on a bet when Griz were an unproven product. It happened to perfectly coincide (and help persuade) Don “air” Reed to come coach, which perfectly complemented Dave Dickenson 4 years later, which filled the stands, which attracts recruits and attention, and UM started winning consistently, which fills and enlarges stands. It’s a virtuous cycle that took several decades.
I mean we could be like Yale. Giant stadium and no one comes.
Jasper Moonshot (Griz fan): Right. I understand. My point is that stadium panache and relative level of fandom shouldn’t determine which team has earned a bid. This issue should be about earning your way during the season.
This year I understand that we are probably the team to slot in the playoffs (assuming we win out), because who else do you put in? But I think stadiums and fans shouldn’t be considered when seeding teams from a pure competitive fairness stance.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): I never thought Z-Train would be the one that says the Griz “deserve” to be in the playoffs because of their stadium and fans. Wow. I thought that’d go against every bone in his body.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Didn’t say deserve because of that alone, if you take off you Griz hate glasses. I said if Griz are 8-3 and given rest of teams in west this year, it’s a good enough tie breaker.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): How else do you explain leap frogging conference foes with better records? NAU beat the Griz!
Z-Train (Griz fan): That’s exactly how a tiebreaker works. It’s the thing that justifies breaking the tie.
Don’t think NAU or Weber are demonstrably better playoff products given likelihood of UM success in playoffs, which is due to WaGriz.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Creating brackets is an inexact science. I imagine they think of lots of things given constraints. I also think Griz would beat NAU at home in playoffs. I also imagine NAU would lose first round game on the road. I think playoff committees take a holistic view, but maybe not.
Sure, NAU beat the Griz. But they lost to Northern Colorado and their other wins come at MSU (last place), new mexico highlands (Div-II), and Idaho State (11th place). I think you have to take broad view.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): It’s the NCAA – they’ll take the money. I don’t like it. It adds to the whole UM mystique that, frankly, should not exist anymore.
Z-Train (Griz fan): You hate it, but the same benefits will be given to Cats/are given to Cats more now. How did they get 27 votes for top 25 other than on reputation alone. That is ahead of NAU and would’ve placed them about 35th in country. They are in last place!
Making brackets is hard. Give me a more fair alternative. Remember how much BS the BCS computer scores were? Even attempts at computer formula objectivity are fraught with subjectivity about inputs. Can’t escape it. It’s a subjective world man, I’m just living in it.
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