Bob Stitt’s Griz will be National Champs (a non-analytic analysis)
We live in the Age of Analytics. This age is defined by a push to record and quantify everything happening on and sometimes off the field. Having a statistic to verify your hot take is required for any legitimate analysis. Each year it becomes harder to remember a time when analysis was done mostly with the gut.[1] I can scarcely remember the halcyon days when former Boston Celtic Antoine Walker HAD to be amazing because in his second NBA season he averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds. In reality, he took more ill-advised shots than a college frat boy on his 21st birthday[2]. Walker was a Good Team Bad Stats All-Star—just an overrated player on a horrible team. Today a guy like Walker doesn’t slide under the radar as easily. We just don’t spend as much time talking about the hard to quantify intricacies.
Statistically, the Grizzlies have the best defense in the Big Sky Conference. They give up the fewest yards on the ground, and they sack the QB better than anyone. If someone recorded the number of times a QB had the OH SHIT look on his face right before he hucked the ball and bounced off the turf, the Griz would lead that category too. Nationally they stand 10th, but that could be much higher were it not for a couple blown coverage and penalties against Cal Poly[3]. The Griz boast the 5th best offense in the conference and they just started clicking.
But none of these stats explain what I’m about to say: The Griz will be National Champions this year. I’ve watched every game and this team has a different feel than previous contenders. They have “it.” I can’t pin-point the epicenter of this nebulous vibe, but it is here and it is real.
I think “it” starts on the defensive side of the ball for this team. After last season, the defense wasn’t where anyone was looking for omens to forecast next season. To outsiders, the unorthodox exodus of Defensive Coordinator Ty Gregorak[4] left a metric shitload of questions. Gregorak had been the architect of a string of ornery defenses that produced more NFL prospects than anyone could have imagined. His defenses kept the Griz relevant through coaching changes and a few offensive QB-carousel situations. Many, including me, seriously doubted Jason Semore’s ability to fill Gregorak’s shoes. But frankly, Semore has taken the defense to another level.
Semore’s defensive is filled with talent, and even though they’ve suffocated teams, it’s exciting to think this squad is still not playing at full strength[5]. Caleb Kidder fills the role of team captain and proudly wears the #37. He is the most physically dominating person on the field. After standing out last season on the interior line, his coaches asked him to move to the edge. Kidder dropped weight, sculpted abs, and still managed to get stronger and more explosive. Quarterbacks don’t have nightmares of clowns, they have nightmares of Kidder.
But Kidder alone isn’t the key to the defense. The defense has talented contributors with huge personalities. Guys like Zach Peevey and Connor Strahm, who are fierce in the trenches but legitimately funny dudes and good teammates in the locker room. These are the Chemists. The Gel Guys. They bring a team together. Playing is simply more enjoyable when you have teammates catalyzing every situation. I think having contributors who have big, likeable personalities give the team permission to cultivate their own, unique ethos. It paves the way for athletic freaks like Josh Buss, Justin Strong, Yamen Sanders and Markell Sanders to cook[6].
Somewhat ironically, Coach Stitt was hired with the promise of bringing along a flashy, up-tempo style of play. I think we’re just beginning to see the start of what Stitt’s offensive mind has conceived. His offense relies on timing and quick decisions. After considering the complexity of teaching an entire team the offense, with a series of QB injuries and a roster of guys not completely suited to his style of play, it’s no surprise it took over a year to iron out enough kinks to really scare teams.
Like the defense, the offensive personnel has a mix of studs, goofy personalities and solid leadership. No position is more important than the quarterback and Brady Gustafson made huge improvements from last year. The most notable stud has been freshmen sensation, Jerry Louie McGee. He’s a jack rabbit, crossed with a human, that has the hair of a Greek God. No one tackles him on the first try and he’s poised to break all kinds of records. So who is the Gel Guy on the offense? Cooper Sprunk and his strange movie reviews. The Griz haven’t lost a step with Sprunk filling the starting Center role after Ben Weyer went down with an injury. Then there are high-character senior leaders like Jackson Thiebes and John Nguyen. These are seriously “date your sister” dudes. Great guys who play their ass off and get the job done.
There’s nothing quantifiable to this analysis. It doesn’t really qualify as analysis. But every team needs talent and that unquantifiable extra thing to win. The Griz are stacked with talent and they haven’t played at full strength yet. They’re offense is just maturating into what we’ve always wanted. And they have the some of the best Gel Guys in the country. The Griz will win the National Championship this year, and I know because this is the most fun Griz team I’ve watched in a very, very long time.
[1] For Data Heads out there, the gut was used 100% in the pre-WWII analysis. Attitudes towards using the gut first changed in 1951 when manager Zack Taylor of the St. Louis Browns (now the Baltimore Orioles) sent to the plate, Eddie Gaedel. Gaedel stood 3 feet 7 inches tall and was, indeed, a dwarf.
[2] The only person who has taken more terrible shots than Antoine is Shaun Rainey.
[3] All the credit goes to Cal Poly. They executed better than the Griz and came by the win honestly.
[4] For those unfamiliar with the Gregorak departure, Google “Julius Caesar and Brutus.”
[5] The Griz have yet to play with their best cornerback, J.R. Nelson.
[6] How did I leave out guys like Ryan Johnson and man child, Jesse Sims? This squad is unbelievable.
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