Northern Iowa is legit
This Saturday, the University of Montana has a tough road game against University of Northern Iowa (“UNI”). UNI is ranked #3 in the country and are coming off an opening weekend victory over FBS Iowa State. They are also favored by 14 points. Do the Griz have a chance?
Jasper Moonshot (Griz fan): Huge week for the Big Sky Conference vs the Missouri Valley Conference: #8 Eastern Washington at #1 North Dakota State, #19 Northern Arizona at #18 Western Illinois, and the game we care most about, #14 Montana at #3 Northern Iowa.
I think the Big Sky Conference goes 2-1, with Eastern Washington getting wrecked in the Fargo Dome. Those pesky Bison just can’t lose at home. It’s like they’re playing with a cheat code. Northern Arizona has a RB that has NFL written all over him. I think they control the clock, move the sticks, and shorten the game enough to win it by a field goal. Montana is going to give Northern Iowa a tough game, despite the point spread.
Z-Train (Griz fan): The Griz will have to control UNI’s QB Aaron Bailey because he seems to their ENTIRE offense. Last week against Iowa State, he had 25 rushes for 114 and 1 TD and passed for 15/27 for 135 and 1 TD. No turnovers. Bailey transferred from Illinois before last year, where he was the 3rd stringer and saw just spot work. He’s got good size at 6’2″ and 220 lbs. Last year he was a dual threat, with 1,334 yards rushing, 1,656 passing , and he scored 19 TDs. Against the EWU sieve last year he had 14 rushes for 135 and 2 passing TDs.
Luckily, dual threat QBs are not a mystery to UM (hey denarius and dakota), and it’s nice to be able to key on one guy. However, he’s put up big numbers against really strong competition (including a big rushing game against NDSU). Griz likely know they have to stop Bailey from running ragged. I like our chance to win if (and that’s a gigantic “if”) we force him to beat us through the air.
Fortunately we will have Yamen “AQUAMAN” Sanders back at safety (6’4″ and 220) and Jesse Sims back at DT, so our defense will be full strength.
Jasper Moonshot (Griz fan): I’m going to state 3 facts: (1) Iowa State is an FBS team. (2) Northern Iowa, and every FCS team that wins an FBS game, gets bonus points and 100% of my admiration. (3) Iowa State is a SUPER TERRIBLE FBS team.
I’m never surprised when SUPER TERRIBLE FBS steams lose to good FCS teams. We always assume the top 15 FCS teams are better (or just as good) as the bottom 15 FBS teams. And Iowa State is in the mix for bottom 15. The last 3 years they are 8-28, with losses to N. Iowa and NDSU. A win over an FBS team is impressive, but let’s not go nuts based on last week.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): We also can’t just dismiss UNI. Our Fan Confidence Index gives the Griz a 22.3 percent chance to win, and I think that is fair. They have a realistic shot, but Northern Iowa is the clear favorite.
They are playing their first home game of the year, in a stadium where they have can pull a decent crowd (unlike many in the FCS). They’ve also had a lot of success against the Big Sky Conference over the past few years, going 5-0 since 2013 with wins against Eastern Washington (2015), Cal Poly (2015), Portland State (2015 playoffs), Northern Colorado (2014), and Northern Colorado again (2013).
Plus, they are solid on defense – their 2015 defensive unit would have ranked #1 in the Big Sky Conference. Lastly, in 2015 they did a great job protecting the ball, having the 4th fewest turnovers per game in all of FCS. If this year’s team follows suit from last year (and a win over Iowa State seems to show they will), then the Griz might be in for a long Saturday.
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