The Griz will dominate this season because the Big Sky Conference stinks at defense
The Griz open the season on Saturday against St. Francis (PA) which is apparently an FCS football program. Simulations have the Griz winning the game by double digits, and all three scores from Montana Mint Fan Confidence Index gives the Griz chance of victory to be over 97 percent. Griz fans are right to be optimistic about this game.
That optimism should extend to the entire season for a few reason: (1) the Griz are ranked 13th nationally, (2) both the Big Sky Conference coaches poll and media poll have them ranked #2 in the Conference, and (3) their presumed high-power offense will be going against some really terrible defenses. Just how bad are defenses in the Big Sky and what should Griz fans look forward to this fall?
Z-Train (Griz Fan): Compared to the rest of the country, the Big Sky Conference plays horrible defense…half the teams fall into the bottom 15 percent of the Football Championship Subdivision (“FCS”) rankings. Out of the 123 FCS schools, here is how our competition finished: Northern Colorado (121st), Cal Poly (112th), Eastern Washington (117th), Montana State (115th), Northern Arizona (116th), Sacramento State (108th), UC Davis (104th). Weber State was the top ranked in the Big Sky (32nd).
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): So the Big Sky stinks at defense. What does this mean for the Griz? How’s this for an equation: Bob Stitt + Healthy Gus + comically bad defenses = Touchdown City.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): Yup! Griz had the 28th ranked offense last year despite playing with three different QBs because of injuries. I see the offense actually improving under a full year of Gus starting at QB. Gus led the nation in passing before his injury plus he’ll be using an expanded offensive playbook.
Losing Roberts, Jamal, and Ellis at WR of course hurts. But I don’t think Stitt’s offense was made to throw fades all game like we did last year. And we should have a vastly improved offensive line. I say look for more dynamism on O with better protection for Gus.
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): I don’t always appreciate the importance of the offensive line, but I thought this was telling. When Aaron Rogers was on Any Given Wednesday, Bill Simmons asked him if he would rather have A-minus running backs and wide receivers and a C-minus offensive line, OR an A-minus offensive line with D-minus running backs and wide receivers. Without hesitation he immediately picked the better o-line with shitty RB/WRs.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): I would every time too. We saw the proof of the effectiveness of a solid line with NDSU. They just push people around with a pretty bread and butter pro-style offense of runs between the tackles and play action passes. Stitt saw that and went and got beef for the offensive line because he knows that’s the competition.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): The biggest question mark in my mind is how well can the Griz play against top-tier completion/defenses. And we will get our answer in Week 2 against Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa has a good defense, ranked 26th last year and the team is currently ranked #3 in the country. If the Griz can move the ball on them – look out.
Z-Train (Griz fan): The biggest question mark for me is the defense, specifically the defensive secondary, but Yamen Sanders is going to be an absolute menace at safety. The Griz were a relative defensive juggernaut for the Big Sky Conference last year, ranking 57th in the country. I want Kidder to build on UM’s legacy of absolute menaces at defensive end (might as well call it U of DE). I am also intrigued by our potential all-FBS transfer secondary. Stitt’s leaning hard on transfers this year to patch over the turnover while he implements his system, and no group will be a better bellwether of the success of that tactic than the defensive secondary.
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