The Bobcats are playing Idaho tonight…and they might win
The Montana State Bobcats are starting the season on uncertain ground. They have a new coach (after the firing of Rob Ash), a new quarterback (after the departure of Dakota Prukop, who is now starting at the University of Oregon), and a perplexing schedule. Should Bobcat fans be excited or terrified entering the 2016 season?
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Check the message boards and the papers and conventional wisdom is that the Cats will lose tonight’s contest against Idaho. According to the Montana Mint’s Fan Confidence Index, less than half of Bobcat fans expect their team to win tonight, and only 24.7 percent of football fans think they’ll come away with a victory. I disagree.
Idaho likely scheduled the Bobcats as a warmup, hoping to beat up on a lesser division team to start off the season. But Idaho is not your ordinary FBS school; they are bad…maybe the worst FBS program in history. Here is what I wrote about them in March:
Over the past three seasons in the FBS, [Idaho] put together a record of 6-29, and this is playing in a Conference that has schools I legit have never heard of. Did you know Southern Alabama University has an FBS football program? They do and are 2-0 against Idaho since they joined the Sun Belt…Over the past 14 seasons, Idaho has played 9 games against teams currently in the Big Sky Conference. Their record in those games is an underwhelming 5-4, despite having home field advantage in 8 out of the 9 games!
They are such a bad FBS program that they recently announced a self-demotion from the FBS back to the FCS and the Big Sky Conference.
This is why I think the Cats will win. I expect the Idaho players and organization to be completely deflated by the decision to drop down, which gives a hungry Montana State team a chance. This chance moves to more of a certainty when you remember that Idaho can’t really prepare for Montana State because the Cats have a new coach and a new system, meaning there is not game film to study (reminiscent of Bob Stitt’s debut against North Dakota State last year).
Sadly, I think this is the peak of the Bobcats season. I expect them to finish somewhere around 3-8 or 4-7.
Coach (Cat Fan): The Cats will not be THAT bad this year. I think 7-4, 8-3 is totally realistic. We have a better than average offense coming back, our defense can’t be as bad as it was last year, and we have a pretty good home field advantage.
Plus, we’re excited about what Choate has infused into the program.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Yeah, I expect the Cats to regress. Last year, they had a great offense – third in the country with 519 ypg. But QB Dakota Prukop who left for the University of Oregon accounted for almost 2/3 of that (347ypg), much of it with his feet. Let’s say the Cats offense suffers a bit and moves to the middle of the pack under their new coach (they never were a rushing threat with Newell and Brekke, Prukop was their motor). And let’s say their defense improves from the bottom 6 percent in the country to the bottom 25 percent. That would be quite a jump but I’m not sure it’ll offset their likely offensive losses.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Cat fans that are optimistic about this season are largely relying on blind optimism that their new coach will immediately turn things around.
Hot Take Nate (Cat Fan): Why is it blind optimism? They went 5-6 last season with a team that seemed to lack any passion to play. Prukop was amazing, yes, but in the Big Sky an above average quarterback can put up numbers. The Cats have talent – they need the energy. Enter Choate. All summer Choate has been blowing up twitter announcing news on new 2-3 star recruits. Choate has demonstrated that he recruits well. A lot of people will be surprised at how much the players buy-in this season and how the Cats finish. I say they finish 7-4 starting with a win tonight against Idaho.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): 8-3, but not supported by any evidence! There is no chance the Cats win tonight. Idaho is going to have some extra juice to prove all the demotion haters wrong, and you can’t just gloss over how bad their defense is!
Here’s my dilemma on the score though – like the old mind bender if a tree falls in the woods, and no one is listening, does it make a sound? My question is if you score a TD against the Cats defense, is it actually worth 6 points? Anticipating that soon-to-be-named CaTDs will be worth 3.5 points, I predict the score will be Idaho 24.5, Cats 24
And Cat fans just gloss over losing Dakota Prukop. He is going to be tough to replace. Billings Gazette writer Greg Rachac asked in a recent article “Is untested quarterback Tyler Bruggman an adequate replacement for Dakota Prukop?” Can we just answer this as a firm “No”?
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Of course he’s not adequate! Asked another way, “are you guys cool replacing one of the best QBs in team history with this guy no one has heard of?” Similar to the situation the Denver Broncos are in of replacing Peyton Manning with Trevor Seimean. The big difference is the Broncos rely on the best defense in the NFL and the Bobcats had the 118th ranked defense in the FCS out of 123 teams.
Jasper Moonshot (Griz Fan): I have a tough time predicting a statement game from the likes of Idaho. The most advanced trick they’ve learned since moving to the FBS is rolling over.
I’m surprised this game is happening. What does Idaho have to gain? When I was in 6th grade I went out for wrestling and watched a decently skilled teammate refuse to take a match against a girl from Cut Bank. This feels like the same situation. Idaho wins it doesn’t move the needle, they just beat up on under-developed pip-squeak with 1/10th the testosterone. They lose and it’s a complete embarrassment. It is the same reason I rarely debate with Hot Take Nate.
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