A Montana #Brexit is a terrible idea

The United Kingdom stunned the polls, betting markets, and the world last week when its citizens voted to leave the European Union, in the so-called #brexit.

photo via threefishsleeping | Flickr

The immediate reaction to the vote has resulted in a lot of interesting questions: what does this mean for the global economy? What the heck is the EU anyway? And perhaps the most interesting, could something like this happen in the United States?

The majority of the press coverage regarding the last question has focused on Texas, a state that always threatens to secede and that has great branding potential with #texit.

But because some in our state have called for secession in the past, it is only natural to be curious about what Montana would look like as an independent country (what would we call it? #MTexit? #Gonetana?)

While it may be fun to think about, the result would be bad – very bad. Here’s why:

1. We’re landlocked

If Montana were to secede, we would still be surrounded by Canada to the north, and the United States to the east, west, and south. Being a landlocked state is one thing, but being a landlocked country sucks for a few reasons.

First, Montana would have to rely on another government to ship our goods internationally. You know all that wheat we have in Montana? At least 80 percent of it sold to costumers overseas. We’d be asking the United States or Canada for permission to use their ports, which will come at a price.

Second, here is the list of countries currently landlocked by two countries: Andorra, Bhutan, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Mongolia, Nepal, and Swaziland. Do we want to be associated with this motley crew or to be known as the Swaziland of the Western Hemisphere?

2. Our taxes would be much higher

No one likes paying taxes, and we often aim our frustration in doing so at those fat cats in Washington, DC.

“A tax hike sounds purrrrrrfect”

In reality, Montana has a pretty good deal. For every $1 we pay in federal income taxes, we get $1.24 back in federal benefits. Assuming we want to keep the same level of benefits, that would mean an increase of at least 24 percent of what you paid in federal income tax last year.

We also get around $430 million annually from the federal government gas tax – or 63 percent of the total budget – to build and maintain our highways. Let’s be generous and say we’d have to replace $400 million of that. If every person in Montana pays taxes, each taxpayer would have to pay an additional $400 per year to make up the cost (1 million taxpayers x $400 = $400 million)

So to maintain the level of benefits we currently receive, your new tax rate would be:

The current tax rate + 24 percent increase + $400 = no thanks

3. Our economy couldn’t compete

The economic hit has been a huge issue for the UK, but the #brexit in no way compares to the impact declaring independence would have on Montana. The European Union is the second-largest economy in the world behind the United States and on its own, the United Kingdom is fifth or sixth depending on the measure. While leaving the EU is almost universally seen as a bad economic move, the UK still has a strong and established economic engine in place.

Montana, on the other hand, would go from being a weak player on the greatest economic team to an economic nobody. It would be like be like Marreese Speights leaving the Golden State Warriors to play for Philadelphia, but if he was the only player on the Sixers’ roster.

Our $44.7 billion GDP ranks us 48 out of 50 states. But as our own country, we’d be ranked 84^th in the world. Right behind Tanzania (woof) and just ahead of Tunisia (double woof).

This also assumes that our economy will continue at its current level, which is not a safe assumption. The tourism industry, for example, will take a hit because visitors will be required to have a passport. And it is probable the U.S. will close off our access to Yellowstone.

4. No more Cat/Griz football

Perhaps the most persuasive reason to stay is that Cat/Griz football as we know it would disappear if we left. Both the Cats and the Griz compete in the NCAA, an organization reluctant to accept foreign schools as members. There are over 1,200 member schools in the NCAA at its various levels, and only one is from outside the United States – Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, British Columbia (a 45 minute drive to the U.S. border depending on traffic).

Technically, we could still have football programs and call them the Grizzlies and the Bobcats. However, it is unclear whom the teams would play (probably nobody outside of Montana), and who would play for them (again, probably nobody outside of Montana).

5. No military

“No military? No problem!” you might say. Who needs a military when you got nukes?! Based on some estimates of the current number of nuclear warheads stored in the state, Montana would be the fourth largest nuclear super power on earth if we were to secede.

This assumes the United States Government would let us keep the nukes… which seems unlikely. And the only way to stop them from taking them back would be to fight them…with a military we don’t have.

Of course it would be fun to redesign the state flag and put Dave Dickenson on our currency – and if we controlled our own immigration policy we could finally ban all Californians from the state. But the cons clearly outweigh the pros here, unless you’re cool with paying a ton of taxes. Leaving the United States would be a terrible idea. Montana makes for a great state – probably the best, in our opinion – but it would be a shitty country.

Don’t forget to signup for the Montana Mint’s Sports Email list. It is awesome. Comes out weekly during the Cat/Griz football seasons, and sporadically the rest of the year. Sign up here.

Brexit courtesy of threefishsleeping on Flickr. Thanks for making your pic available to the public!

Tags: bobcats, Brexit, canada, grizzlies, highways, nukes

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