Griz Playoff Hopes: You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance
After an insane win over Idaho State last weekend, the playoff hopes for the University of Montana are somehow still alive. The Montana Mint Superfans discuss the Griz’s (somewhat tough) odds of making the postseason, the challenge of playing against EWU’s monster wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and the sad decline of the Montana State Bobcats.
Don’t forget that you can sign up for the Montana Mint’s weekly sports email. It is GREAT. Seriously. Signup for it here.
And checkout the archives of Montana Mint Superfan articles here.
On to the Superfans….
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): Ok fellas, as sad is it might be for Coach, Hot Take Nate, and Scotty, I don’t want to spend too much time on the Bobcats this week. Their loss last weekend to Southern Utah basically closes the door on their playoff hopes. We covered last week that Coach Ash’s job is in jeopardy. And next week we will do a deeper dive on their chances against the Griz, which, despite everything that’s happened this season, I still think are pretty good.
This week the Cats are playing at Idaho State, pitting the 9th best team in the Big Sky Conference against the 11th best team. The cats are the better team and should win. The most interesting storyline going into the game is if the Cats can finally win on the road! Their last road victory came on October 11, 2014 against UC Davis. This is their last chance to win on the road in 2015. Can the streak extend into August/September 2016? HIGH DRAMA!
Coach (Cats fan): Despite their record, this week and next are big for the Bobcats because they will go a long ways in determining how next season might pan out. They are not going to lose a lot of players to graduation, so a strong finish could provide some great momentum heading into Prukop’s, Newell’s, Brekke’s, etc. final season.
You are right that the Cats are a better team and I expect them to snap the road losing streak. I’m going Cats 42 ISU 35
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): I obviously watch the Griz closer than MSU, but the Cat’s loss last week to Southern Utah was not a big surprise. I thought their season was over after the loss to Portland State. Did you all feel the same?
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): I realized that we were in trouble during the second game of the year against EWU. That is when I saw what an offense could do to the Cats defense. I know that EWU is one of the best offenses in the country but it’s how they made the Cats defenders look that scared me right away.
Cal Poly had me feeling good, though. My dad said after the game that everyone at Bobcat Stadium was pretty jacked up. They looked like the team we expected when we made our pre-season picks.
I think it was actually our loss at Northern Arizona that stood out as the “oh, shit” moment. After that loss, I knew we would struggle to close out the season and even if we made the playoffs we would lose game one by 28 points. The PSU drubbing merely cemented it all for me.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Poor Cats. Those Montana Grizzlies still have a shot at the playoffs thanks to last week’s insane finish against Idaho State. The Griz completely lucked out last weekend to be in the position they are in today. Looking at all kicks in the FCS this season, there was a 70 percent chance of ISU’s kicker hitting that FG. There was a .00001 percent chance the snapper would launch the ball over the 50 for a Griz touchdown.
Now they need to win out, and #10 Eastern Washington stands in their way.
Coach (Cats fan): The Griz got so lucky last weekend it just plain makes me sick. However, good teams keep fighting and make their own breaks. To me, that’s what happened in Pocatello. Different story this week against a tough Eagles squad.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): Being this is essentially a playoff game, WaGriz Stadium is going to have that electric playoff feel. I refuse to check the weather for Saturday because I’m not a 60 year old man, but November’s crisp bite has penetrated the air and I’m hoping for some snow. Late fall is when football in Montana really starts getting fun—getting popped by our historically pugnacious defense feels THAT much more painful when the mercury dips below 40.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): EWU is an interesting team. The Eagles are second ranked in the Big Sky, 6-3 overall and 5-1 in conference.
Despite a high number of wins, the Eagles point differential (total points scored-total points allowed),is a head scratching -10. That is 6th best in the Big Sky Conference. For comparison, Southern Utah is +171 and Portland State is +151.
The reason for this number is EWU has played a crazy number of close games. Six of their nine games have been decided by only one score (they are 5-1 in these close contests).
The bad news for the Grizzlies? EWU is the #1 passing offense in FCS. Uh oh.
Coach (Cats fan): That’s in large part thanks EWU’s WR Cooper Kupp. The kid is an NFL talent and has 47 career touchdowns and has only played in 35 games. That’s unreal. Jerry Rice had 50 or 51 for his entire FCS career! Kupp comes from good stock: his dad played for the Cardinals and Cowboys and grandpa played for the Cowboys, Redskins, Falcons and Saints.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): Kupp is on the cusp(p) of a few cool bench marks.
(1) With four more catches he will tie his own school record of 104. The Conference record is 112.
(2) With three more catches he’ll tie Jerry Rice for career receptions at 301.
(3) With just seven receptions, Kupp would move into sixth in FCS history and eight would move him into fifth (No. 4 has 310, and the record is 395).
(4) Kupp is also just three TDs from his Big Sky single season record of 21 set in 2013.
(5) Lastly, he is 145 receiving yards from moving into third in FCS history in that category and 183 away from Rice to rank second (the record is 5,250).
Also, check out this video…
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Yikes. The thing I love about that video is it shows he is not a product of a good passing system. Kupp is an actual beast. There are playing a great Oregon team, and Kupp is still falling forward for 5 yards after getting hit by two guys. He is just running over people. Is he the best we’ve seen come through the Big Sky Conference the past decade?
Coach (Cats fan): Hot Take Nate and I watched Vincent Jackson when he played with North Colorado. I believe they came to Bozeman as a D-II team and beat the Cats. He played TE and as I remember he played well.
Another good one was Jared Allen out of Idaho State. I remember watching him too and he was as good as advertised.
Big Play VA might be the best though because he could throw it or just scramble and beat you with his legs.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): This is not Big Sky, but Brian Quick for App State was something. He’s on the Rams now playing with former Griz Trumaine Johnson. Below is the snow game in WaGriz. I think Quick had like 12 catches that game for over 100 yards.
The final play of the game with 0:01 seconds is an out route to Quick and Tru breaks it up. I couldn’t speak for two days.
(skip to last minute of this vid)
Scotty Mint (Cats fan): Also not a Big Sky player, but I remember watching the Cats get upset by Chadron State in 2006 and wondering who the shifty little white guy was who made our defense look silly. That guy was named Danny Woodhead and he put up 215 yds, 2 TDs on what was a pretty stout defense that year.
Fun to think back on now. A shitty upset at the time.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): I remember Chadron State was the week after we went down and beat the University of Colorado. We were all jacked up for the season and then Danny Woodhead just rolled us.
Z-Train (Griz fan): That Woodhead game was awesome because no one saw it coming. It was like he had just slept with the entire stadium’s girlfriends. Everyone was dejected and confused.
The guy I remember being infuriatingly good was that Matt Szczur from Villanova. Total Villanova bro and it drove me insane that he was beating us. He now plays outfield for the cubs. Look at this bro. Probably reads brobible and has lax flow.
By the way, did you know that the EWU-UM game is called the Governor’s Cup? I didn’t. But I bet EWU did, because we are their main rival.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): To win that Governor’s Cup, the Griz offense is going to have to keep pace. And they should try to do it on the ground.
Eastern Washington’s defense is horrendous. Like Montana State Bobcat horrendous. Worse actually. The Cats are ranked 116th when it comes to total yards allowed, but Eastern Washington is ranked 120th! Eastern is ranked 119th in rushing yards allowed to the Bobcats 120. (Interestingly Idaho State is ranked 121 which means the Grizzlies are closing out against 3 of the 5 worst rushing defenses in all of the FCS).
The Griz ran the shit out of the ball against ISU…265 yards. 105 of that is from QB McKenna “The Dude” Simis. Do you think Simis’s mobility is why Stitt is starting him over the seemingly healthy Gustafson?
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): Rumor has it that that Coach Stitt has some consternation with The Dude’s decision making ability and that his OT fumble was supposed to be a straight handoff, but he kept the ball instead. Some of The Dude’s mistakes can be chalked up to inexperience and age, but there’s no handicap for age, and people who care about age are just uptight, because 30 is just a number, ya know, and I’m not THAT much older…Okay, I’ll drink both of these.
I’m also wondering if Stitt could be misleading the Eagles by announcing The Dude, who is mobile, as the starter, but actually intending to start Gus, who is not. That’s some Bill Belichick shit, and holy hell do I love this idea.
I could also make a solid case for Tyler Lucas to debut as the 4th starting QB for the Griz this season. [GASP!] Why Lucas? (I’m glad I asked.) Because Lucas is an ex-QB turned WR who dropped down from Penn. St. He’s larger and more athletic than The Dude. He played one series at the end of the UND game and he was exciting! On the drive, Lucas had an incredible tuck-and-run play that ended after he went air borne over two defenders. There’s no way EWU has prepped for him, so if Stitt wants to utilize a mobile QB strategy, Lucas seems perfect.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): While I was researching this week’s games, I came across a crazy statistic. It is the second to last game of the season and EWU has only attempted 4 field goals. For the entire season. They’ve only made two! How is that possible?
More entertaining but not related to either Montana school: When looking up FG stats, I came across poor old Cesar Ramon, the kicker for FCS Alabama A&M. Cesar has the worst field goal percentage in the country, making just .143 of his attempts (1 for 7). Despite his poor performance, Alabama A&M keeps trotting him out there. He’s kicked in 7 of their 8 games. His lone make this year came last weekend from a whopping 21 yards out. He didn’t play in the 2014 season, but did in 2013. That season he went 5 of 12. The NCAA stat book says his career long FG is 102 yards which seems…unlikely.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Maybe Cesar kicked his leg out on that hundred yarder. Went out in a blaze of glory, his moon landing, and now just can’t care about anything inside the 50.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): Just because I can’t let the article end on an Alabama A&M kicking stat, here are two things. Cooper Kupp got hitched recently, and while I’m usually against future NFL players getting tied down by their college girlfriends, she’s a total babe. The only downside I could find on newly minted Mrs. Kupp is the busch league way she plays defense on the basketball court.
And lastly, Grizzly RB Joey Counts gave a hilarious interview to ABC FOX’s Dominic Shelden. It is a must watch.
Joey Counts Two Minute Drill.This week’s two minute Drill features Joey Counts, and it’s one of our all-time favorites. For more Griz coverage, be sure to catch the Grizzly Sports Report every Monday night after game weeks at 9:35 on FOX Montana
Posted by Dominic Shelden ABC FOX MT on Sunday, October 25, 2015
Related Posts
Griz Fan Podcast – The games you remember are played in November →
Griz Fan Podcast – From Bears to Mustangs, Griz showing improvements? →
Griz Fan Podcast – Endless breadsticks and post-bye week chat with guest Kyle Hansen →
