sports

Published on October 23rd, 2015 | by Montana Mint Staff

Is Rob Ash coaching for his job? [superfans]

After a disastrous defensive performance last weekend in Portland, Montana State fans are questioning the future of their coach, Rob Ash.  The Montana Mint Superfans discuss this, potential replacements, and this weekend’s games for the Cats and Griz.

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Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Before we discuss anything, I would like to mention that with New Hampshire dropping out of the polls, MSU (currently #21) now has the longest active streak of being ranked in the Top 25 at 80 straight weeks.  In the FCS, polls mean nothing since we have playoffs but I guess it is a little something to be proud of.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): 80 weeks in the top 25 is something to be proud of, but don’t let it distract you from the truth of where the Bobcats currently are.  Last week’s loss to Portland State was a disaster for MSU.  Not only was it a conference loss, but the MSU defense could not have looked worse.

Portland State’s RB David Jones just rolled over the top of you guys with a career high 285 yards (also the 2^nd most by anyone in the FCS this season).  He averaged 12.4 yards PER CARRY!  The chart bellows shows he’s had a good year, but nothing close to what he did against the Cats.

David Jones (RB) Portland State

And it wasn’t just Jones… it was the entire PSU offense.  Portland State had a total 11 possessions against the Cats.  Here is how they went in chronological order

1^st Possession – 1 play, 79 yards – TOUCHDOWN

2^nd Possession – 11 plays, 77 yards – TOUCHDOWN

3^rd Possession – 9 plays, 75 yards – TOUCHDOWN

4^th Possession – 10 plays, 75 yards – TOUCHDOWN

5^th Possession – 9 plays, 86 yards – TOUCHDOWN

6^th Possession – 5 plays, 48 yards – TOUCHDOWN

7^th Possession – 5 plays, 75 yards – TOUCHDOWN

8^th Possession – 7 plays, 67 yards – TOUCHDOWN

9^th Possession – 5 plays, 19 yards – FUMBLE

10^th Possession – 12 plays, 77 yards – FIELD GOAL

11^th Possession – 6 plays, 13 yards – PUNT

Yikes. Touchdowns on the first eight possessions?

Z-Train (Griz fan): After the game, Coach Rob Ash said this: “You won’t hear anybody on our team throwing negatives at anybody else on the team or any side of the ball.  We’ll stick together, we’ll fight back.  We’ve got to promise each other that we’ll find ways to get better.”

That sounds like a team that is about one second from an implosion.  I think that’s Ash sending a desperate shot across the bow to his team, a plea to hold together.  If they can do that, that’ll be the only thing the Cat Defense holds all year.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan):  Western Damn Oregon held Davis to 5 yards per game.  Eight straight TD drives?  Are you kidding me?  Z-Train, you say the Cats are close to implosion – what would that change if they did implode?  Touchdowns on the first nine drives?

MSU QB Dakota Prukop and the offense have done all they can to get a W for the Cats…they’ve scored 40+ PPG in our three losses.  How can you not be insanely frustrated as an offense?

Z-Train (Griz fan): Here’s my prediction: in a reverse of Geno “Glass Jaw” Smith’s unfortunate demise, Dakota Prokup goes nuts on that Swiss cheese you all are trying to pass as D-I defenders.

His Walter Payton Award hopes are running away faster than a middle of the pack running back facing the Cats, and it’s the defense to blame.

Coach (Cats fan): I really hope our defensive staff gets it figured out.  We have guys who I think are capable both on the field and within the staff.  I just don’t think we have any studs on the d-line like we’ve had and we for sure don’t have anything in the secondary.  I think Trace Timmer should be playing safety.  I have a hunch he’d be better than what we have there now.

Clarence Toole (Cats fan): Here is how the Cats are doing compared to the rest of the Big Sky

Z-Train (Griz fan): Ouch.  Interestingly, the Cats are giving up 3 passing touchdowns per game (most in the Big Sky) but it happens on just an average of 23 attempts and 232 yards per game.  Something’s gotta explain that.  Maybe the Fat Cats are playing the run so much that a play action is more likely to catch them.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Whatever it is, the defense is so bad that poor Coach Ash took to Craigslist in search of help.

Serious question though.  How much of this falls back to Coach Rob Ash?  With a great offense and pitiful defense, he’s essentially built one-half of a team.

Clarence Toole (Griz fan): Other questions: (1) Will Rob Ash resign mid-season like Steve Spurrier?  And (2) If no, will he be fired after this year?

Scotty Mint (Cats fan): I’m not sure if the Cats get rid of Ash.  There needs to be a scapegoat for this terrible defense, and I think assistant coach and co-defensive coordinator Jamie Marshall could (but shouldn’t) be that guy.  He’s been defensive coordinator for the last 8 seasons and has had some formidable defenses in that time.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): It’s hard to say if Ash has run his course in Bozeman.  There are so many times I’ve wanted him gone but he has recruited on offense well and we’ve had a fairly clean program during his tenure.  He’s made us a top tier program in the FCS but we need postseason success now.

Coach (Cats fan): Ditching Ash in the middle of the season certainly isn’t the answer.  Is he fired after the season if we miss the playoffs and/or lose to the Griz?  Not even sure that happens.

Outside of postseason success, he’s done things we’ve never seen at MSU, so I think he has the job security.  I want just one of our supermen QB’s to make it deep in the playoffs.  Lulay never went deep, McGhee made it to the second round and Prukop got eliminated in the first round.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Ash’s career winning percentage at MSU from 2007 to present is a record .670 (65-32 in 8 full seasons and half of 2015).  His first 6 years he had a .712 winning % (47-19) but since the start of the 2013 season is .580 (18-13).  18-13 with the run of QBs that we’ve had?  That’s not as elite as we Bobcat fans like to think of our squad and that’s some serious under performing on the coach’s part.  The more I look at the program the more I’m in the “part ways with Ash” camp.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Good results don’t guarantee anything.  The Denver Broncos fired John Fox after making the playoffs four years in a row (including one super bowl appearance).  The Chicago Bulls fired Thibs after making the playoffs five years in a row (including one appearance ECF appearance).  Sometimes a good coach can only take you so far.

Ash has brought a winning culture to Bozeman, but it seems like he’s maybe peaked?  Also, he is quite the wordsmith.  In discussing the defensive, Coach Ash said that all “problems can be traced back to three areas: scheme, personnel and technique.”  That about covers it, Coach Ash!

Coach (Cats fan): If you’re failing in those areas, what areas are you doing well in?  Our scheme is shit, our players suck and sucky players have sucky technique.

Z-Train (Griz fan): Ha what a technical coach.  I think every game comes down to defense, offense, and special teams.  Ash is definitely on the hot seat.  I’d say he’s at a C-, trending downward.

If Ash is out at the end of the year, who takes his place?

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): What about co-defensive coordinator Kane Ioane?  He’s an all-time Bobcat and all-time great guy.  If a new era is ushered in, do they keep Kane?

Coach (Cats fan): I think if Ash is fired, Ioane goes too.  He’s an all-time great, but I’m not sure he’s a great coach.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): I guess it would be tough to come in and keep the guy who is co-coordinating the worst defense in the history of the Big Sky (not fact checked).  Also tough to let a guy like Kane go when he’s given so much to the program.

Scotty Mint (Cats fan): Kane just may have enough clout in the organization to dodge the pink slip bullet.  The Bobcats are starting to prove that great players don’t necessarily make great coaches.  They’re walking a fine line hiring popular former players that make the boosters and veteran fans happy but is it might be at the cost of the program.

Clarence Toole (Cats fan): The rumored runner up for the Griz job was Bobby Hauck.  He is an asshole, but he won and he developed athletes into NFL talent.  I could TOTALLY see Hauck turning heel and taking the MSU gig.  It’d be like the 1996 Bash at the Beach when Hulk Hogan joined the NWO by siding with Nash and Hall and dropping a leg on the Macho Man Randy Savage (RIP).  Hauck would love that!

Coach (Cats fan): Hauck hates MSU too much to do something like that and I hate Hauck for how much he beat up on us during his time.  Arrogant prick.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Same could have been said before Rex Ryan jumped from Jets to Bills, or when Bill Parcells jumped from Pats to Jets.  I could see Hauck to MSU.  All about that $$$.

Remember that Dave Dickenson is a head coach in the CFL.  He could move south of the border to coach the Cats and then the whole city of Missoula would implode.

Despite the terrible loss in Portland, not all is a disaster for the Cats.  George Hammond, an FCS Bracketologist (I swear to god this is a real thing) has four Big Sky teams making the tournament, including both Montana schools.

Coach (Cats fan): The Cats will almost certainly win this week over East Tennessee State University (they are 53.5-point favorites!), but their remaining schedule is filled with a lot of defensive prowess.

We play North Dakota and Idaho State on the road and being we haven’t won on the road in over a year; I can see us losing those games.

We play Southern Utah and the Griz at home, and I can easily see us losing both because they have legit defensive units.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan):  Fun Southern Utah fact.  They are allowing an amazing 14 points per game.  More unbelievable is that they are allowing just ONE POINT PER GAME in Big Sky Conference games!  Two shutouts against Weber and Sac St, and a 30-3 win over UNC.  Holy moly.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Oh, by the way, we’re paying East Middle Southern West Tennessee State $275,000 to come to our house and play us this weekend.  I guess we’ll do anything to get those FCS playoff eligible wins.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan):  Eastern Tennessee State University is fun to research.  According to Wikipedia, their football program has been dormant since 2003.  They apparently restarted their program this season but haven’t updated their Wikipedia page, which made me laugh very loudly.

ETSU is bad.  0-6 bad.  They have the 115th scoring offense and the 119th scoring defense.  Here are their six games they’ve played:

MSU is going to win this game.  My question is will their defense perform better than Emory & Henry’s football team.

Z-Train (Griz fan):  Emory & Henry might be a couple hipster three year olds they played at the park.  Ladies and gentlemen…your 2015 MSU bobcats schedule!!!!

Clarence Toole (Griz fan): I would have bet $100 that Middle East Tennessee State University was an NAIA team.  If George Hammond is right about MSU making the playoffs, the Buccaneers should leave the field wishing they never agreed to take part of a rebuilding effort.

Coach (Cats fan): For the Eastern Tennessee State game, watch out this week for Robert Wilcox.  Three blown knees and he’s finally on the field.  Was impressed with him last Saturday.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): ETSU stinks.  We don’t need to talk about this game.  The only bad thing that could happen is that the Cats offense doesn’t score 100 or the defense gives up over 14 points.

Scotty Mint (Cats fan): I don’t think anyone is questioning a Cats win this weekend, but what about the Griz.  They have a tough game against North Dakota.

Z-Train (Griz fan): I am going to nominate UM-UND game for Dark Horse Significant Game of the Week.  This is the first week since NDSU that our defensive line is near full strength, and we are facing a very one-dimensional rushing attack that relies on a tiny running back named John Santiago getting yards or they are toast (they have some noodle-armed backup at QB).  So it’s not some two-headed option monster–it’s just Santiago who is really good.  If he gets his yards, they are in a place to win.

I think the Griz have enough D talent when healthy to handle that, and I am excited to see if that’s true.  Our pass D is great; our rush D could be good.  I give the Griz a 70% chance of winning a game that will almost certainly be close, because that’s what it seems we are built for.

Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Right and the Griz are coming off a bye, which favors a coach like Stitt who is a game planning monster.  With an off-season to prepare, he was able to knock off NDSU (But he did lose to Liberty after a bye week, so what do I know).

UND had a big win against FBS Wyoming and lost big to NDSU.  Everything else has been a win or loss by one score.  They sit at 4-3 and seem very beatable… but so did Weber State.

In the end, I believe coaching matters and think that the bye week/home field are enough of an edge for the Griz.

Clarence Toole (Griz fan):  People assume coming off a bye means a lot, but the numbers don’t back it up.  Looking at all of the FCS – teams coming off their bye week only have a record of 37-30.

North Dakota’s defense is unreal right now, particularly when it comes to stopping the run, and the Griz don’t run the ball very effectively to begin with.  Not to mention the Griz are rolling out a 3rd string, redshirt freshman quarterback.  If Stitt can’t manufacture a running game off the bye week, UND will force the Griz into being one-dimensional team.  And when a defense knows to expect pass it can get creative with blitz schemes and zone coverages that can make even veteran quarterbacks queasy.

Gun to my head, I couldn’t make a pick.  Gun to my heart, #GoGriz.

Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): UND’s defense is better against the run than the Griz so it figures to be a tough day for the Griz RBs.  Against common opponents the Griz are allowing close to 4 yards per carry while UND is allowing only 2.5 yards per carry.  UND does give up the 4th most passing yards in the league so the Griz should have the edge in that situation, but we have no idea about the Griz QB situation or what to expect.  This is a tough game to call.  I’m going with UND 23-17.

Tags: bobcats, bozeman, cats, football, griz, grizzlies, missoula, Montana Mint Superfans, msu, sports, superfans, UM

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