Prukop Dominates, Panic in Missoula, and the Wisdom of Going for it on 4th Down [Superfans]
This week, the Montana Mint Superfans recap last week’s losses, discuss the value of going for it on 4th down, and look forward to the two homecoming games this weekend.
Montana Mint: Two tough losses for the Montana schools last weekend. What happened?
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): I think this exchange between Hot Take Nate and Scotty Mint accurately summed up the first half of the Cats/EWU game:
Scotty Mint (Cats Fan): Ha! That was before the Cats went nuts in the second half, including 19 points in the fourth. And before Prukop went bananas: he threw for 353, ran for 196, and was responsible for 5 touchdowns!
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): I know it’s cliche to say any loss is a “good loss” but I was super encouraged by the Cats and the fact that they had a chance at the end of that game. A bunch of Eeyores, including Coach 3-Billz, were texting me things like “Eastern is going to kill us,” “We’re in trouble”, etc. Well, we went to the Inferno, put up a ton of points, and our QB looks like the QB we knew he’d be.
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): As for the Griz, they just got beat. I picked the Griz to win because they were coming off a bye and I thought Liberty was overrated. Turned out Liberty is for real. Usually when the Griz play on the road, it is in some crummy, half empty stadium. Look at what they ran into against Liberty:
Not to mention, that despite being a very Christian school they apparently don’t hold back. Look at this tweet from the pregame!
Liberty has own rap song playing during pre-game “just because we’re Christian doesn’t mean we won’t rip your heads off” #TheMoreYouKnow
— Dominic Shelden (@Dominic_Shelden) September 19, 2015
We can blame the Gustafson injury on the loss, but when Chad “CHAZ” Chalich entered the game we all assumed Gus was pulled for performance, not a leg injury.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): If his leg is his arm, and injury is lack of touch, then maybe.
Clarence Toole (Griz Fan): Rumor has it that Gus will be out 4-6 weeks. Probably a broken or fractured fibula. It could be the tibia too, which would be slightly worse because it’s the weight-bearing bone of the leg.
Also, let’s not forget that the score was 19-24 when Joey ‘Muscle Farm’ Counts lost a fumble within a foot of the goal line during a critical 3rd quarter drive. Had he scored, the Griz take the lead 25-24 and presumably go for the two-point conversion. Costly mistake.
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): I have a question. Wasn’t it Z-Train that said in the Cat-Griz preview that the Cats were one QB injury away from being a subpar team? What does Gus’s injury make the Griz?
Z-Train (Griz Fan): Different situation. Cats were truly horrendous without Prukop last year. Remember the Bleskin Bowl? Griz always have been a work in progress this season–new coach, new system, new QB after a 3 year starter. The problems against Liberty can best be highlighted by the fact CHAZ was sacked 7 times!!! Was it o-line or the fact that any middling Idaho QB bro named Chaz just can’t have the mental wattage necessary to run that offense? Guess we will find out this weekend.
Montana Mint: Before we get to this week’s games, let’s talk about MSU Coach Rob Ash going for it on 4th down so often against EWU. Some in the press have questioned his decision, and others (including the Mint’s Montana Parlay) have applauded the strategy. Was it the right call?
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): We had a lonnnngggg email chain about the article written by the Billings Gazette’s Greg Rachach (read here), where he second guessed Ash’s decision, but did so from the perspective of an “arm chair” quarterback, instead doing any of his own analysis.
A 4th down call in the first quarter did not impact the outcome of the EWU game. You don’t win a game against EWU kicking FGs and trying to stop them from scoring TDs. Ash knew his defense could not stop EWU. I think it was a great call and a non-Ash call which is what Bobcat fans have wanted for a few years now! If they get that 4th down and score a TD that’s a serious confidence builder.
I think the Gazette staff would get along with this anti-stats dummy
Coach 3-Billz (Cats Fan): Pretty easy for a reporter or anyone outside of their coaching staff to second guess the play calls after the game. Ash’s tenure has been marked with safe decisions and I was happy to see him make a gutsy call at a critical moment to try and give the Cats an edge.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): I’m just gonna say columnists would struggle to fill their inches if they didn’t get to second guess coaching. Sports reporting would be boring if they never got to have an opinion.
Not to get all Jeff Goldblum as Dr. Ian Malcolm, but the ripple effect from first quarter fuck ups could certainly change the tenor of a game. That’s neither a surprising nor novel claim. In a game where each team put up 50 did it matter? Maybe. As Al Pacino would say, IT’S A GAME OF INCHES, and where the ultimate margin is five, an easy seven makes some probably significant difference.
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): I disagree that “good columns make bold claims and let the readers argue about it all week until there are games again.” I think good columns make claims based on good research and analysis.
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): Hopefully that is what we are doing here with Superfans!
It is funny how certain narratives develop in the media and with the fans. Two big storylines in the early season have been (1) this debate over the Cats going for it on fourth, and (2) how speedy the Griz offense is. Lets look at a couple facts:
Regarding fourth downs – of all FCS teams that have gone for it five or more times, there is an average conversion rate of 53 percent. The Cats are 5 of 7 (.751) on 4th down, well above the league average…ranked 22 out of 123 teams. Not too bad. The Griz, on the other hand, are 5 of 11 (.455), well below league average. Ranked 73 out of 123. Also, 11 attempts is third highest in FCS behind only Colgate (13) and Cal Poly (16). Despite their frequency and lack of success, no one is talking about the Griz going for it on 4th.
Regarding the Griz offense – by all measures the Griz and Caoch Stitt run an exciting, fast-paced offense. But do you know which team has a quicker offense? The Bobcats! Against Easter Washington, the Cats ran 104(!!!!) plays. That is the highest single game total in the FCS so far, and was just 14 off the all-time record. There is a lot of talk about the speedy Stitt offense, and not as much about what the Cats are doing.
I strongly support aggressive 4th down play…especially when you’re an underdog in a close game. Fortune favors the bold.
Montana Mint: It is homecoming for both the Cats and Griz. The Griz are big favorites (-13) over Northern Arizona, and the Cats slight favorites (-2) over Cal Poly. What do you expect to see this weekend? Let’s start with the Cats.
Scotty Mint (Cats Fan): Love that the Cats are at home with a packed Homecoming house against Cal Poly. It may be the slight edge needed to win this shootout. Once again, the Cats defenses will be nonexistent and the game will come down to penalties and turnovers. Fan noise will attribute to more than one false start.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Agree. Love that the Cats are at home, too. Prukop coming home with some momentum and the Homecoming crowd is all we need for this win. Cats win by a touchdown. I would definitely be singing a different tune had Cal Poly beat Northern Iowa last week.
Coach 3-Billz (Cats Fan): Sadly, I don’t think home field advantage means anything for the MSU-Cal Poly game. Based on the result of their game against the Griz , it seems Cal Poly could give two shits about crowd noise. Their offense just chips away until they break through.
That being said, I think the Cats win on Saturday. Their offense is very similar to Cal Poly’s in that they chip away and dink and dunk until the defense wears down. Our defense is much better against the run, so I’m not as worried as I was last weekend.
Clarence Toole (Griz Fan): I don’t know what to make of the MSU–Cal Poly game. Dakota Prukop and the Cats offense have been en fuego. Despite the loss, Prukop walked off the EWU field with more swagger than a middle school boy who just touched his first boob. I think Cal Poly will have a tough time covering all of the Cat’s weapons. If they get down I don’t think their offense can score fast enough to dig out of a hole.
On the other hand, I was really impressed with the way Cal Poly ran their triple option against the Griz. Every snap made me nervous. In their final drive that set up a game winning field goal, the Griz defense was hemorrhaging yards. I can see Cal Poly rushing for 300 yards, unless there’s a last minute rule change that allows MSU to play two-hand touch.
In the end, I think MSU will defeat Cal Poly. This will lead to every MSU fan proclaiming they’re the best team in the state.
Z-Train (Griz Fans): Everyone in Montana knows the Cats need to score 40 a game to be competitive, and they have one guy that can do it, but boy can he do it. Prukop is great and your offense is the opposite of great.
We don’t know enough about MSU, because despite it being the end of September, they’ve played exactly one meaningful game. I’m going to start calling them the Fat Cats: they are softer than an 9 month old’s thighs, and they are based in a town that realistically is now 60% California tech transplants and millionaires that are careful to not spend too much time in MT so they don’t have to pay taxes. Perfect name. The Montana State FAT CATS.
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): Seems like a good new nickname for Coach.
Coach FAT CAT (Cats Fan): Don’t question my toughness. I’m rock solid.
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): No one disputes the Cats have to score to win and their defense is super frustrating but it leads to some damn fun games.
I’d rather have it this way with an explosive offense and a sieve like defense than the opposite – a team that has to shut down other teams’ offense because we can’t score points. Give me 500 yards a game from the QB, a 50-40 win, and a hangover the next day from taking a shot every time the Cats score. I love it.
Montana Mint: And how about the Griz vs. Northern Arizona?
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): Northern Arizona is 2-1 and ranked 29th in the latest FCS poll, but two of the games don’t tell us much. They have one win against Division II New Mexico Highlands, and a road blowout loss to #20 in FBS, University of Arizona, 77-13. Whatever.
Their one meaningful game was a 34-28 win on the road at Stephen F Austin. Against Stephen F Austin, NAU relied heavily on WR Emmanuel Butler, who finished with insane numbers – 3 touchdowns and 216 yards. Butler also snagged 119 yards against #20 ranked university of Arizona. Yikes.
The Griz will be without starting QB Brady Gustafson. His replacement Chaz Chalich looked lost finishing up the Liberty game. Because of that, and the threat posed by NAU’s monster wide receiver Emmanuel Butler, I expect this game to be close, and gun to my head I say NAU covers…and wins.
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): Bear Tycoon, you are a classic Griz fan. It’s insane how fast the Griz season has turned from “Holy crap – they’re going to kill everyone” to “Ohhh, this is the team we were kind of expecting.” After the NDSU game, I told everyone to settle the hell down – it was one win! Now they’re 1-2 and Griz fan confidence is all but gone. Can’t say I’m not enjoying this.
Scotty Mint (Cats Fan): The Griz have the composure of a hormonal teenager. One day they’re running around with the clout of Justin Bieber following Floyd Money Mayweather to the ring and the next the sky is falling and they’re a bunch of Eeyores pretending the season is over after one injury.
Coming from a desensitized Cat’s fan who’s seen his quarterbacks go down for often than not in recent seasons all I can say is buck the fuck up and move on. Cat’s fans know as much as any that it’s next man up and they’re no excuses. Keep an even keel and power forward. Living life from one extreme to the other is more carcinogenic than whatever is in the Grizzly Stadium turf.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): I’m not hormonal. After beating the #1 team and four-time defending national champ, it’s fair to think your team is talented. After following up that monumental win with two losses against pretty good teams, it’s fair, and necessary, to adjust that assessment and realize your team’s limits.
Clarence Toole (Griz Fan): Unpopular Opinion Alert: Chaz Chalich is a better quarterback than Brady Gustafson. Down 0-17 against Liberty, Chaz was thrown into the fire and responded pretty damn well: 224 yards on 12/24 passing with 1 TD and 0 INT. While he was in the game, the Griz scored 21 to Liberty’s 14. The Griz are fine having Chaz taking the snaps. Remember, he started 7 games for FBS Idaho last year, and while the Vandals are probably worse than many FCS teams, the kid can still play. He throws a great deep ball and he’s going to be exciting to watch. I think the Griz run over 100 plays this game and Chaz throws for +400 yards. Like Notorious B.I.G., “All I do is separate the game from the truth.”
I’m excited to watch NAU’s true freshman QB, Case Cookus, who beat out a duo of seniors of the starting gig. This isn’t a case of Coach Souers rebuilding either. To date Cookus has chucked it around the yard for over 700 yards and 6 touchdowns. Another NAU player to watch is senior cornerback Marcus Alford , who last season won a first-team all-Big Sky honors. He’ll probably shadow Griz WR Jamaal Jones and try to do his best to prevent Jamaal from doing Jamaal things.
Hot Take Nate (Cats Fan): It’s hard to bet against the Griz at home. No matter what kind of season they’re having, that is a tough place to play and they have to get it going to get some confidence back with that team. With ALL of that said, I still can’t bet against them at home – NAU covers but Griz win.
Scotty Mint (Cats Fan): I have the same thoughts on the home field advantage. Another close game that the Griz ultimately win on a final two minute drill sealed with a game winning field goal with 0 on the clock. Griz win 24-21.
Coach FAT CAT (Cats Fan): NAU has a history of playing well in Missoula, but it is tough to rebound emotionally after getting destroyed like they did against Arizona. I’ll go with the Griz in this one, 27-14.
Bear Tycoon (Griz Fan): So all three Cat fans are picking the Griz? And I just read that the entire 1995 Championship team, including Super Dave Dickenson, are coming back for this game. I feel dumb for picking against UM.
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